16
Devon Red
7yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 87
Worcester · CopyBet Fixed Brush Hurdle Series Final Novices' Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 4f
#14
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Newton Abbot | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-09-07 | Newton Abbot | 5 | 4th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-08-22 | Newton Abbot | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-07-22 | Worcester | 4 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish16th of 160% of fieldRange 8-16 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -12.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 16th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07/2026 | 4th | 66/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 22/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 07/09/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 57% | -0.25 |
| 18/09/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 83% | +0.28 |