8
Down To Business
4yo Gelding · 11-1 · OR 114
Worcester · CopyBet Fixed Brush Hurdle Series Final Novices' Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 4f
#10
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -3.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Worcester | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-02-04 | Ludlow | 4 | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-01-17 | Ascot | 3 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-12-17 | Newbury | 3 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-09-27 | Curragh | ? | 3rd | 10th | −6 |
| 2025-09-06 | Navan | ? | 6th | 13th | −6 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1653% of fieldRange 4-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength51%
Delivery trend -10.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/2025 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 20/07/2025 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 38% | +0.32 |
| 06/09/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 27/09/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 86% | +0.28 |
| 17/12/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 78% | -0.06 |
| 17/01/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 04/02/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 43% | -0.28 |
| 23/08/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |