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4yo Filly · 10-9 · OR 108

Worcester · CopyBet Fixed Brush Hurdle Series Final Novices' Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 4f

#16

Rank

Odds

14/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#16

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Progressive middle-distance winner on Flat for C. W. J. Farrell who confirmed the promise of hurdling debut for new yard when landing maiden at Newton Abbot this summer. Not really built on that, however, well held behind Road To Wembley here latest. Improvement required on switch to handicapping.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -3.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Bellewstown 04/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 1m4f37y Goo 1294/07C8C8 @ Killarney 14/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 1m3f73y Yie 129C8 @ Bellewstown 26/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 1m4f97y Goo 12926/08C8C8 @ Bellewstown 01/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 1m4f110y Sft 129C8 @ Curragh 21/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 67 · 1m4f Hvy 129 · beat its mark21/10/2025 · OR 67 par21/10C8OR 674 @ Newton Abbot 12/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 2m167y Goo 1494 @ Newton Abbot 03/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 2m167y Goo 1583/0744 @ Uttoxeter 24/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 110 · 1m7f168y Gd 152 · below its mark24/07/2026 · OR 110 par4 @ Worcester 19/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 110 · 2m4f Gd 150 · below its mark19/08/2026 · OR 110 par19/084OR 110projClass-projected finish: 8th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-19Worcester46th8th−2
2026-07-24Uttoxeter42nd4th−2
2026-07-03Newton Abbot41st3rd−2
2026-06-12Newton Abbot42nd4th−2
2025-10-21Curragh?1st8th−6
2025-10-01Bellewstown?2nd9th−6

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/071/103/0719/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1627% of fieldRange 6-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength36%

Delivery trend -3.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 16. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/07/20256th50/10%38%+0.38
14/07/20256th25/10%17%+0.17
26/08/20255th40/10%56%+0.56
01/10/20252nd11/271%90%+0.19
21/10/20251st7/163%100%+0.37
12/06/20262nd16/116%88%+0.72
03/07/20261st5/493%100%+0.07
24/07/20262nd6/492%92%-0.00
19/08/20266th12/137%44%+0.08