IvyArcIvyArc
14

Media Mogul

5yo Gelding · 10-9 · OR 105

Worcester · CopyBet Fixed Brush Hurdle Series Final Novices' Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 4f

#9

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Winner on the Flat for Ed Walker but rather temperamental. Headgear off and left previous 2 efforts over hurdles behind when scoring at this course (2m) in June. However, rather let down by jumping here on handicap debut latest and this longer trip is an unknown.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲2
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -2.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Redcar 21/04/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 68 · 1m5f218y GF 138 · beat its mark21/04/2025 · OR 68 par21/045OR 683 @ Salisbury 15/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 71 · 1m6f44y GF 120 · beat its mark15/05/2025 · OR 71 par4 @ Goodwood 13/06/2025 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 71 · 1m6f Goo 128 · below its mark13/06/2025 · OR 71 par13/064OR 715 @ Salisbury 23/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 70 · 1m6f44y Goo 142 · beat its mark23/07/2025 · OR 70 par5 @ Yarmouth 15/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 74 · 1m3f104y GF 142 · beat its mark15/08/2025 · OR 74 par15/085OR 744 @ Huntingdon 02/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR - · 1m7f171y Gd 1584 @ Southwell 25/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR - · 1m7f182y GS 15825/1144 @ Worcester 17/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 98 · 2m Gd 158 · beat its mark17/06/2026 · OR 98 par4 @ Worcester 22/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 105 · 2m Gd 163 · below its mark22/07/2026 · OR 105 par22/074OR 105projClass-projected finish: 9th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-22Worcester43rd5th−2
2026-06-17Worcester41st3rd−2
2025-11-25Southwell44th6th−2
2025-11-02Huntingdon44th6th−2
2025-08-15Yarmouth54th8th−3
2025-07-23Salisbury52nd6th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0423/0725/1122/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1640% of fieldRange 4-16 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength27%

Delivery trend +2.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/04/20251st11/1094%100%+0.06
15/05/20253rd13/891%50%-0.41
13/06/202511th9/153%0%-0.53
23/07/20252nd12/137%88%+0.51
15/08/20254th9/488%50%-0.38
02/11/20254th16/116%75%+0.59
25/11/20254th9/276%70%-0.06
17/06/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
22/07/20263rd85/4089%67%-0.22