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Road To Wembley

5yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 124

Worcester · CopyBet Fixed Brush Hurdle Series Final Novices' Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 4f

#1

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

97%

Place Prob

85%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fairly useful staying handicapper on the Flat who has made a positive start over hurdles for new connections, winning 3 of his 4 starts, most recently a 10-runner novice over C&D (good) 37 days ago by ¾ length from Square D'alboni. Switched to handicapping now, he remains open to improvement.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 2
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Sandown 14/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 79 · 1m6f GF 129 · beat its mark14/06/2025 · OR 79 par14/064OR 794 @ York 11/07/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 79 · 1m3f188y Goo 139 · beat its mark11/07/2025 · OR 79 par4 @ Ffos Las 05/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 78 · 1m6f Goo 134 · beat its mark05/08/2025 · OR 78 par5/084OR 784 @ Newcastle 21/08/2025 · Pos 9th of 14 · OR 78 · 2m56y Std 138 · beat its mark21/08/2025 · OR 78 par4 @ Southwell 23/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 77 · 1m6f21y Std 127 · beat its mark23/09/2025 · OR 77 par23/094OR 774 @ Warwick 08/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 2m Goo 1594 @ Southwell 01/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 1m7f182y Gd 1591/0444 @ Aintree 15/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 120 · 2m209y Gd 163 · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 120 par4 @ Worcester 19/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 124 · 2m4f Gd 166 · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 124 par19/084OR 124projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-19Worcester41st3rd−2
2026-05-15Aintree41st3rd−2
2026-04-01Southwell41st3rd−2
2026-03-08Warwick42nd4th−2
2025-09-23Southwell42nd4th−2
2025-08-21Newcastle49th11th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0621/081/0419/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 16100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength91%

Delivery trend +5.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/06/20253rd9/488%78%-0.10
11/07/20256th5/174%29%-0.45
05/08/20252nd3/184%80%-0.04
21/08/20259th11/142%38%-0.04
23/09/20252nd9/276%90%+0.14
08/03/20262nd15/261%89%+0.28
01/04/20261st2/999%100%+0.01
15/05/20261st4/596%100%+0.04
19/08/20261st9/276%100%+0.24