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5

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4yo Gelding · 11-6 · OR 119

Worcester · CopyBet Fixed Brush Hurdle Series Final Novices' Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 4f

#5

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Useful 3-time winner on Flat for Ralph Beckett who has progressed over hurdles this term, winning twice before good ¾-length second of 10 to Road To Wembley in novice hurdle over C&D (good) 37 days ago, clear of rest. Harry Skelton prefers Down To Business, however.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲2
Strength12%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Hamilton 18/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 108 · 1m3f15y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/07/2025 · OR 108 par18/071OR 108C1 @ Clairefontaine 15/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 104 · 1m3f204y GS 125 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/08/2025 · OR 104 par2 @ Doncaster 13/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 100 · 1m2f43y Sft 127 · below its mark13/09/2025 · OR 100 par13/092OR 1002 @ Doncaster 25/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 96 · 1m2f43y Hvy 127 · below its mark25/10/2025 · OR 96 par3 @ Newbury 14/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 2m69y GS 14314/0134 @ Catterick 30/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 1m7f156y Sft 1524 @ Stratford 30/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 2m2f148y Goo 15230/0644 @ Worcester 16/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 114 · 2m Goo 159 · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 114 par4 @ Worcester 19/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 119 · 2m4f Gd 162 · below its mark19/08/2026 · OR 119 par19/084OR 119projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-19Worcester42nd4th−2
2026-07-16Worcester41st3rd−2
2026-06-30Stratford41st3rd−2
2026-01-30Catterick47th9th−2
2026-01-14Newbury33rd4th−1
2025-10-25Doncaster29th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0725/1030/0619/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1693% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength77%

Delivery trend +5.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/07/20255th9/153%33%-0.19
15/08/20255th11/486%20%-0.66
13/09/20258th12/137%13%-0.24
25/10/20259th12/137%11%-0.26
14/01/20263rd12/137%80%+0.43
30/01/20267th4/998%25%-0.73
30/06/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06
16/07/20261st4/1198%100%+0.02
19/08/20262nd5/174%89%+0.15