2
Trouville
5yo Gelding · 11-10 · OR 120
Worcester · CopyBet Fixed Brush Hurdle Series Final Novices' Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 4f
#3
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲2
Strength12%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Worcester | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-07-24 | Uttoxeter | 4 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-07-01 | Worcester | 4 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-11 | Worcester | 4 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2025-07-01 | Chelmsford City | 3 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-06-01 | Chelmsford City | 4 | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1667% of fieldRange 6-16 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength29%
Delivery trend +0.7% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/2024 | 9th | 7/1 | 63% | 11% | -0.52 |
| 12/09/2024 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 11/10/2024 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 21% | +0.06 |
| 01/06/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 91% | +0.08 |
| 01/07/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 78% | -0.04 |
| 11/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 01/07/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 24/07/2026 | 4th | 11/10 | 94% | 75% | -0.19 |
| 23/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |