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4yo Gelding · 10-13 · OR 112

Worcester · CopyBet Fixed Brush Hurdle Series Final Novices' Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 4f

#8

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fairly useful on the Flat for Ollie Sangster and made the most of a good opportunity when opening hurdles account at Newton Abbot (2¾m) in June. Only narrowly denied by Regarde here next time and looks fairly treated on his handicap debut in this sphere.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲2
Strength15%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -2.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Salisbury 14/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 78 · 1m1f201y Goo 135 · beat its mark14/08/2025 · OR 78 par14/084OR 784 @ Fontwell 03/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 2m1f162y Goo 1544 @ Catterick 18/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 77 · 1m4f13y Goo 128 · beat its mark18/10/2025 · OR 77 par18/104OR 775 @ Southwell 03/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR 75 · 1m4f14y Std 135 · beat its mark03/11/2025 · OR 75 par4 @ Ffos Las 21/04/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR - · 2m4f GS 14921/0444 @ Ffos Las 05/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR - · 2m4f Gd 1494 @ Newton Abbot 03/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 104 · 2m5f122y Goo 152 · beat its mark03/06/2026 · OR 104 par3/064OR 1044 @ Worcester 10/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 109 · 2m4f Goo 158 · below its mark10/07/2026 · OR 109 par5 @ Haydock 04/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 73 · 1m6f Hvy 141 · below its mark04/09/2026 · OR 73 par4/095OR 73projClass-projected finish: 13th of 16
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Haydock56th10th−3
2026-07-10Worcester42nd4th−2
2026-06-03Newton Abbot41st3rd−2
2026-05-05Ffos Las42nd4th−2
2026-04-21Ffos Las411th13th−2
2025-11-03Southwell58th12th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/083/113/064/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1660% of fieldRange 1-16 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength58%

Delivery trend +3.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 16. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/08/20254th17/255%25%-0.30
03/10/20256th5/287%17%-0.70
18/10/20259th66/10%27%+0.27
03/11/20258th28/10%42%+0.42
21/04/202611th300/10%9%+0.09
05/05/20262nd40/10%75%+0.75
03/06/20261st8/1196%100%+0.04
10/07/20262nd2/189%86%-0.04
04/09/20266th9/153%29%-0.24