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6

Moi Mon Vieux

4yo Gelding · 11-1

Worcester · FBC Manby Bowdler Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 4f

#5

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Runner-up twice from 3 starts in bumpers, over 1½m in France on debut. However, didn't see his race out upped to 2½m when fourth of 5 in novice at Perth on hurdles bow in July. Off 11 weeks since.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Nantes 11/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR - · 1m3f204y Ver 14711/05C55 @ Southwell 02/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 1m7f182y Goo 1512/0654 @ Perth 12/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR - · 2m4f35y Gd 14912/074projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 5
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-12Perth44th4th0
2026-06-02Southwell52nd3rd−1
2026-05-11Nantes?6th7th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/052/0612/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength12%

Delivery trend -5.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/05/20266th11/271%55%-0.17
02/06/20262nd9/276%80%+0.04
12/07/20264th9/153%25%-0.28