9
Break Point
6yo Gelding · 10-13 · OR 105
Worcester · PJ Nicholls KGM Korea Genuinely Made Handicap Hurdle · 2m 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength51%
What the class read says
Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.9)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Fontwell | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Worcester | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Lingfield | 6 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-06-29 | Kempton | 6 | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-06-10 | Fontwell | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Uttoxeter | 2 | 10th | 8th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength69%
Delivery trend +6.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/12/2025 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 82% | -0.10 |
| 16/01/2026 | 6th | 5/6 | 96% | 38% | -0.58 |
| 07/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 24/05/2026 | 10th | 66/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 10/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 29/06/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 06/07/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 22/07/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 28/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |