8
Gwash
7yo Gelding · 11-4 · OR 110
Worcester · PJ Nicholls KGM Korea Genuinely Made Handicap Hurdle · 2m 7f
#9
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Uttoxeter | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-07-22 | Worcester | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Worcester | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Worcester | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Warwick | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-27 | Taunton | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength33%
Delivery trend +2.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 91% | +0.15 |
| 16/09/2025 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 30% | -0.49 |
| 07/11/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 54% | +0.06 |
| 27/11/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 09/05/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 06/06/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 01/07/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 90% | +0.35 |
| 22/07/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 25% | -0.46 |
| 15/09/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |