Moon D'orange
8yo Gelding · 12-2 · OR 122
Worcester · PJ Nicholls KGM Korea Genuinely Made Handicap Hurdle · 2m 7f
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 5.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Haydock | 2 | 15th | 13th | +2 |
| 2026-04-15 | Haydock | 1 | 7th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-03-10 | Cheltenham | 1 | 3rd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-03-02 | Leopardstown | 1 | 10th | 6th | +3 |
| 2026-01-31 | Musselburgh | 2 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-01-24 | Cheltenham | 1 | 6th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2025 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 29/11/2025 | 15th | 28/1 | 0% | 39% | +0.39 |
| 01/01/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 24/01/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 31/01/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 14% | -0.52 |
| 02/03/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 10/03/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |
| 15/04/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 09/05/2026 | 15th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |