The Egyptian Ginge
5yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 120
Worcester · PJ Nicholls KGM Korea Genuinely Made Handicap Hurdle · 2m 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Ludlow | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Ascot | 2 | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-03-05 | Haydock | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Wincanton | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-10 | Kempton | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-11-22 | Haydock | 1 | 5th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/2025 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 23/04/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 25/10/2025 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/11/2025 | 5th | 80/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 10/01/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 14/02/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 78% | -0.05 |
| 05/03/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 92% | +0.76 |
| 29/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 22/04/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |