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Tiger Orchid

11yo Gelding · 11-12 · OR 118

Worcester · PJ Nicholls KGM Korea Genuinely Made Handicap Hurdle · 2m 7f

#6

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Veteran who gained due reward for a consistent spell when readily seeing off Secret Trix (who reopposes on better terms) at Uttoxeter in June. Hasn't proved as potent in a couple of subsequent starts over fences, however, he should give a good account off only 2 lb higher back over hurdles.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength2%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Uttoxeter 16/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 116 · 2m7f70y Gd 166 · below its mark16/09/2025 · OR 116 par16/094OR 1164 @ Southwell 02/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 120 · 3m60y Gd 166 · below its mark02/10/2025 · OR 120 par4 @ Hereford 22/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 118 · 3m1f44y Sft 166 · below its mark22/02/2026 · OR 118 par22/024OR 1184 @ Wetherby 17/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 112 · 3m26y Goo 160 · below its mark17/03/2026 · OR 112 par4 @ Bangor-on-Dee 18/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 114 · 2m7f32y Gd 167 · below its mark18/04/2026 · OR 114 par18/044OR 1143 @ Huntingdon 19/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 116 · 3m1f10y Goo 159 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark19/05/2026 · OR 116 par4 @ Uttoxeter 04/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 116 · 2m7f70y Gd 164 · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 116 par4/064OR 1164 @ Cartmel 26/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 120 · 3m1f107y Gd 168 · below its mark26/06/2026 · OR 120 par4 @ Worcester 22/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 119 · 2m7f Gd 167 · below its mark22/07/2026 · OR 119 par22/074OR 119projClass-projected finish: 9th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-22Worcester46th6th0
2026-06-26Cartmel45th5th0
2026-06-04Uttoxeter41st1st0
2026-05-19Huntingdon33rd2nd+1
2026-04-18Bangor-on-Dee42nd2nd0
2026-03-17Wetherby42nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0917/034/0622/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength38%

Delivery trend -8.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/09/20254th18/15%70%+0.65
02/10/20254th12/137%40%+0.03
22/02/20262nd7/163%83%+0.20
17/03/20262nd9/153%89%+0.36
18/04/20262nd10/382%88%+0.05
19/05/20263rd13/266%60%-0.06
04/06/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
26/06/20265th9/276%20%-0.56
22/07/20266th10/147%38%-0.10