Al Mootamarid
5yo Gelding · 11-11 · OR 99
Worcester · FBC Manby Bowdler Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle · 2m
#5
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Cartmel | 3 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-07-01 | Worcester | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Worcester | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Chester | 4 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2025-07-25 | Uttoxeter | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-07-13 | Stratford | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/05/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 26/05/2025 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 80% | +0.38 |
| 17/06/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 13/07/2025 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 25/07/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 69% | +0.22 |
| 08/05/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 17/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 01/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 29/08/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |