8
Castle Quarter
10yo Gelding · 10-8 · OR 82
Worcester · FBC Manby Bowdler Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle · 2m
#6
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Worcester | 5 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Uttoxeter | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Worcester | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Salisbury | 5 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Uttoxeter | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-24 | Taunton | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 7-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -9.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/2025 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 07/11/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 26/12/2025 | 3rd | 50/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 24/03/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 58% | +0.16 |
| 16/05/2026 | 7th | 11/1 | 42% | 14% | -0.28 |
| 14/06/2026 | 10th | 80/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/07/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 24/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 23/08/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |