Connemara Joe
5yo Gelding · 10-4 · OR 78
Worcester · FBC Manby Bowdler Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle · 2m
#10
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 6.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Stratford | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | Worcester | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Worcester | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-30 | Stratford | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Warwick | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -6.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/06/2026 | 4th | 150/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 30/06/2026 | 6th | 80/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 16/07/2026 | 5th | 100/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 23/08/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 05/09/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |