1
Douglas Dc
8yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 102
Worcester · FBC Manby Bowdler Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle · 2m
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 5
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Bath | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-08-18 | Lingfield | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-08-04 | Lingfield | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-13 | Lingfield | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Brighton | 6 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-05 | Bath | 6 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength64%
Delivery trend -0.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 54% | +0.06 |
| 06/11/2025 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 07/05/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 05/06/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 21/06/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 13/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 04/08/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |
| 18/08/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 02/09/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 40% | -0.02 |