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7

Lucky Sevens

3yo Gelding · 10-8 · OR 100

Worcester · FBC Manby Bowdler Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle · 2m

#1

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

20%

Place Prob

29%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Half-brother to useful hurdler. Runner-up on hurdling debut prior to looking fortunate to go one better in another small-field event at Stratford in July. Underlined he isn't one for maximum faith on Flat since but still potentially interesting pitched into open handicap company by excellent yard.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength43%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Yarmouth 21/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 45 · 1m3y GF 126 · beat its mark21/04/2026 · OR 45 par21/046OR 456 @ Yarmouth 28/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 45 · 1m2f23y Gd 131 · beat its mark28/04/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Bath 13/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 53 · 1m2f37y Fm 133 · beat its mark13/05/2026 · OR 53 par13/056OR 536 @ Lingfield 30/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 55 · 1m3f133y Goo 135 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Brighton 21/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 54 · 1m1f207y GF 125 · beat its mark21/06/2026 · OR 54 par21/066OR 544 @ Stratford 29/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR - · 2m70y Goo 154 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Stratford 12/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR - · 2m70y GF 154 · HIGHER CLASS12/0746 @ Lingfield 22/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 57 · 2m68y GF 132 · beat its mark22/07/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Windsor 29/08/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 57 · 1m3f99y Sft 132 · below its mark29/08/2026 · OR 57 par29/086OR 57projClass-projected finish: 6th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Windsor612th13th−1
2026-07-22Lingfield64th5th−1
2026-07-12Stratford41st0th+1
2026-06-29Stratford42nd1st+1
2026-06-21Brighton61st2nd−1
2026-05-30Lingfield65th6th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0430/0512/0729/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength30%

Delivery trend -9.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/04/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
28/04/20263rd15/890%78%-0.12
13/05/20262nd3/184%88%+0.03
30/05/20265th11/486%56%-0.30
21/06/20261st2/999%100%+0.01
29/06/20262nd5/174%75%+0.01
12/07/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06
22/07/20264th10/1195%50%-0.45
29/08/202612th10/382%8%-0.74