Peter's Last Deal
5yo Gelding · 11-3 · OR 91
Worcester · FBC Manby Bowdler Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle · 2m
#7
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Worcester | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Warwick | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-01-12 | Hereford | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-11-03 | Hereford | 4 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-04-17 | Ffos Las | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-02-12 | Hereford | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +8.1% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/02/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 17/04/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 03/11/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 12/01/2026 | 6th | 17/2 | 55% | 55% | -0.01 |
| 09/05/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 06/06/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |