12:49 · Ffos Las

Bridge, The Home Of The Carvery Nursery

5fGoing TBCClass 52YO onlyTURFHandicap8 runners
Ordered by projected finish
7
Top Pick1
OR 65
4/1
Naval Cop silks

Mr J C Smith

2yo Filly · 8-13

Naval Crown - Fair Cop (Exceed And Excel)

Callum Hutchinson60%0/1A M Balding60%
46513
6.0

Hails from talented sprinting family. Improved a fair bit to make a winning nursery debut at Chepstow (5f, soft). Found life tougher in higher grade when 4½-length third at Chester last time (having been well drawn). Entitled to do a bit better in calmer waters here.

Class Advantage

13/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a13/0610/07 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a26/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a31/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above31/08 · mark par12/09 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above12/09 · mark par12/09projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 8
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength67%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 4 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 25%13/06Pos 6 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 6 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 29%10/07Pos 5 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 5 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 20%26/07Pos 1 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 1 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 100%31/08Pos 3 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 3 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 75%12/09
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -0.7%Ahead 2/4
1
3
OR 75
11/2
Rhodes Runner silks

Nick Bradley Racing 28

2yo Filly · 9-9

Minzaal - Sunniyra (Zoffany)

Rhys Clutterbuck60%R M Beckett60%
246421
7.0

Found improvement faced with heavy ground for the first time at Chester 8 days ago, readily winning a 6f novice in good style. She isn't fully exposed under these conditions and may well follow up back in a nursery.

Class Advantage

2/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above2/07 · mark par2/0723/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above23/07 · mark par8/08 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below8/08 · mark par27/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above27/08 · mark par7/09 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above7/09 · mark par19/09 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above19/09 · mark par19/09projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength64%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 2 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 86%2/07Pos 4 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 4 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 25%Pos 6 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 17%8/08Pos 4 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 4 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 83%7/09Pos 1 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 1 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 100%19/09
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength93%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +3.3%Ahead 2/4
3
Market Fav2
OR 73
3/1
Knock Three Times silks

Mrs Paul Shanahan

2yo Filly · 9-7

Supremacy - White Daffodil (Footstepsinthesand)

Saffie Osborne70%1/3J A Osborne60%
224154
6.0Going 8.0
1st Cheekpieces +2

Improved to make a winning nursery debut at Lingfield (6f, good to firm) in July. Shaped as if back in form when 2¼-length fourth at Bath (5f) last time, when outpaced before running on. First-time cheekpieces/softer ground could help and looks the leading hope of Jamie Osborne pair.

Class Advantage

9/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a9/0523/05 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a27/06 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above27/06 · mark par15/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above15/07 · mark par1/08 · C5 · finish vs mark below1/08 · mark par12/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above12/09 · mark par12/09projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength70%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 83%9/05Pos 2 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 2 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 88%Pos 4 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 4 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 40%27/06Pos 1 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 1 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 100%Pos 5 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 5 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 33%1/08Pos 4 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 4 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 67%12/09
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength34%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -17.2%Ahead 1/4
5
4
OR 71
5/1
Perigord Noir silks

Gently Down The Stream

2yo Gelding · 9-5

Invincible Army - Sweet Dragon Fly (Oasis Dream)

Benoit D L Sayette60%George Baker60%
344023
6.0
Cheek pieces

Went close on second start in a nursery at Chepstow (5f, soft) last month. Backed that up in change of headgear (still hung right) when 1½-length third in above-average nursery for this grade at Bath latest. Conditions hold no fears and should go well from a potentially handy draw.

Class Advantage

4/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a4/0523/05 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a12/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a31/07 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above31/07 · mark par29/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above29/08 · mark par12/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above12/09 · mark par12/09projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength67%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 75%4/05Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 73%Pos 4 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 4 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 63%12/06Pos 14 · SP 100/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 14 · SP 100/1 | Actual: 24%Pos 2 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 2 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 80%29/08Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 78%12/09
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength68%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +22.1%Ahead 4/4
2
5
OR 73
9/2
Blondie Larry silks

Dominic Griffiths And David Kavanagh

2yo Colt · 9-7

Showcasing - Isle Of May (Kodiac)

William Carver60%0/2J A Osborne
522
7.0Going 8.0

€50,000 Showcasing colt who ran to a similar level when runner-up in 5f novices at Windsor/Chepstow earlier this month. Now switches to handicap following 10 weeks away and his opening mark demands a bit more.

Class Advantage

11/06 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a11/0627/06 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a27/0616/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a16/07projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength16%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 5 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 50%11/06Pos 2 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 2 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 86%27/06Pos 2 · SP 5/6 | Expected: 96%Pos 2 · SP 5/6 | Actual: 88%16/07
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength87%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +16.2%Ahead 1/3
4
8
OR 73
10/1
Niewiadoma silks

S A S Thoroughbreds

2yo Filly · 9-7

Cotai Glory - Virginia Plane (Mehmas)

Gina Mangan0/1A Watson60%
190004
3.0Class ↓5
Blinkers

Highly tried on the back of her first-time-out success at Thirsk in the spring. Sights lowered and looked ready for return to 5f when 2¾ lengths fourth of 7 in a Redcar seller (6f, 5/1) last time. Will need to bounce back to her debut form to make an impact off her opening mark, though.

Class Advantage

18/04 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a18/0415/05 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a17/06 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a18/07 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above18/07 · mark par20/08 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above20/08 · mark par15/09 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above15/09 · mark par15/09projClass-projected finish: 6th of 8
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼3
Strength98%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 1 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 100%18/04Pos 9 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 9 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 11%Pos 25 · SP 100/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 25 · SP 100/1 | Actual: 8%17/06Pos 17 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 17 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 30%Pos 18 · SP 150/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 18 · SP 150/1 | Actual: 11%20/08Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 50%15/09
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength43%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +6.2%Ahead 3/4
6
6
OR 68
8/1
Wolf's Gallop silks

Fairies At The Bottom Of The Garden Lt

2yo Gelding · 9-2

Sergei Prokofiev - Sky Blue Pink (Showcasing)

Rob Hornby0/1T Lacey
73348
4.0Going 8.0

Went the right way in maiden/novices, showing plenty of speed when third on qualifying run at Windsor (5f). Beaten less than a length when well-backed fourth on nursery bow at Leicester. Possibly unsuited by surface/sharp track at Lingfield latest and should find this more to his liking.

Class Advantage

16/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a16/0511/06 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a27/06 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a29/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above29/07 · mark par13/08 · C5 · finish vs mark below13/08 · mark par13/08projClass-projected finish: 7th of 8
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength31%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 25%16/05Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 75%11/06Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 71%27/06Pos 4 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 4 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 40%29/07Pos 8 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 8 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 13%13/08
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 6-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -8.5%Ahead 2/4
8
7
OR 53
66/1
Defiant Dream silks

Rowdown Racing Partnership

2yo Filly · 8-2

Dream Ahead - Incorrigible (Oasis Dream)

Tyler Heard0/4M D I Usher60%
92650
3.0
Cheek pieces

Standout effort when a 50/1 runner-up under similar conditions over C&D on second career start. That was a weak maiden, though, and it's hardly been a positive start in nurseries.

Class Advantage

4/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a4/0617/06 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a24/07 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a9/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above9/08 · mark par17/09 · C6 · finish vs mark below17/09 · mark par17/09projClass-projected finish: 8th of 8
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength33%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 9 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 11%4/06Pos 2 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 75%17/06Pos 6 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 6 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 44%24/07Pos 5 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 43%9/08Pos 11 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 9%17/09
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength25%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +41.5%Ahead 4/4