IvyArcIvyArc
  1. home
  2. newcastle
  3. race-1

16:00 · Newcastle

Follow AtTheRaces On Instagram Handicap

1m 4f 98yGoing TBCClass 53YO plusALLWEATHERHandicap11 runners
Ordered by projected finish
6
Market Fav2
OR 66
11/4
Jujubella silks

Oakleaf Racing

Jujubella

5yo Mare · 9-12

Too Darn Hot - Nourah (Shamardal)

O J Orr60%1/5L Russell & M Scudamore60%
532302
6.0
Cheek pieces

3-time course winner who has yet to win this season but returned to form with things more in favour when second of 6 in a C&D handicap (6/4) 26 days ago, clear of rest. Likely to go well again.

Class Advantage

4/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above4/06 · mark par4/0625/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above25/06 · mark par27/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above27/06 · mark par11/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above11/07 · mark par30/07 · C7 · finish vs mark below30/07 · mark par5/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above5/09 · mark par5/09projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 11
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength34%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 4f 98y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 5 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 33%4/06Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 33%Pos 2 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 91%27/06Pos 3 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 3 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 60%Pos 14 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 14 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 19%30/07Pos 2 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 2 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 80%5/09
Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength65%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -15.8%Ahead 1/4
4
Top Pick1
OR 70
7/2
L'Eagle Aid silks

Two Goldfish & A Balloon

L'Eagle Aid

5yo Gelding · 10-2

Free Eagle - Acres Of Diamonds (Sea The Stars)

Rowan Scott60%C Johnston60%
353363
6.0Going 8.0
Cheek pieces

C&D winner who wasted no time getting back to form when third of 8 in handicap at Pontefract (1½m, good) last week, doing well under the circumstances having been kept much handier than the first 2 in a well-run race. Looks ready to strike.

Class Advantage

27/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above27/06 · mark par27/0611/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above11/07 · mark par22/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above22/07 · mark par2/08 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above2/08 · mark par29/08 · C5 · finish vs mark below29/08 · mark par24/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above24/09 · mark par24/09projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 11
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength52%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 4f 98y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 71%27/06Pos 5 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 5 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 43%Pos 3 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 3 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 33%22/07Pos 3 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 3 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 67%Pos 6 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 6 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 29%29/08Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 71%24/09
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength58%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -21.9%Ahead 1/4
5
6
OR 68
5/1
Junkyard Dog silks

A Sinclair, David Carroll & G Gibson

Junkyard Dog

4yo Gelding · 10-0

Fastnet Rock - Gold Bracelet (Montjeu)

A Mullen70%1/3I Jardine60%
589214
5.0
Visor

Fair winner in Ireland. Built on an encouraging Carlisle second to get off the mark for current yard at Southwell (11f) in August. Shaped as though ready for this step back up in trip when 3¾ lengths fourth in a slightly higher grade here (1¼m) latest. Merits consideration.

Class Advantage

16/02 · C5 · finish vs mark below16/02 · mark par16/0231/03 · C5 · finish vs mark below31/03 · mark par9/06 · C5 · finish vs mark below9/06 · mark par4/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above4/07 · mark par6/08 · C6 · finish vs mark above6/08 · mark par3/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above3/09 · mark par3/09projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength31%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 4f 98y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 38%16/02Pos 7 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 7 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 9 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 11%9/06Pos 2 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 75%Pos 1 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 1 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 100%6/08Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 63%3/09
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +30.6%Ahead 3/4
1
3
OR 70
14/1
Moon Sniper silks

Mrs Christine Rabbitt

Moon Sniper

4yo Gelding · 10-2

Sea The Moon - Improve (Iffraaj)

William Pyle70%J Bedi60%
343356
5.0Class ↓4
Cheek piecesTongue strap

Ran poorly on first outing since leaving William Muir & Chris Grassick (for 17,000 gns) over C&D in May. Has since undergone a breathing operation. Cheekpieces also refitted.

Class Advantage

25/11 · C5 · finish vs mark above25/11 · mark par25/118/12 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above8/12 · mark par30/12 · C5 · finish vs mark above30/12 · mark par13/01 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above13/01 · mark par30/01 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above30/01 · mark par20/04 · C5 · finish vs mark below20/04 · mark par20/04projClass-projected finish: 5th of 11
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength78%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 4f 98y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 75%25/11Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 50%Pos 3 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 3 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 71%30/12Pos 3 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 3 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 60%Pos 5 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 5 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 33%30/01Pos 6 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 6 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 0%20/04
Projected finish4th of 1170% of fieldRange 5-11 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength17%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -0.9%Ahead 2/4
8
5
OR 63
25/1
Molinari silks

Mr & Mrs G F Hall Racing

Molinari

9yo Gelding · 9-9

Mastercraftsman - Moon Empress (Rainbow Quest)

P Mulrennan60%0/5M Todhunter
204860
3.0Going 8.0

Ended 2024 with back-to-back wins. Hit the frame several times last year and, while his 3 comeback runs this summer have been short of his best, he's dangerous to dismiss back down in grade from an attractive mark, particularly if the market speaks in his favour.

Class Advantage

6/11 · C5 · finish vs mark above6/11 · mark par6/117/11 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below7/11 · mark par13/12 · C5 · finish vs mark above13/12 · mark par19/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above19/06 · mark par25/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above25/07 · mark par10/08 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above10/08 · mark par10/08projClass-projected finish: 7th of 11
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength53%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 4f 98y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 89%6/11Pos 10 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 10 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 4 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 73%13/12Pos 8 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 22%Pos 6 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 58%25/07Pos 12 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 12 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 8%10/08
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 2-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength33%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +40.4%Ahead 4/4
7
7
OR 70
9/2
Mr Moonshine silks

The Musley Bank Partnership & Partner

Mr Moonshine

3yo Gelding · 9-10

Cotai Glory - Whiskey 'n' Chips (Dark Angel)

Warren Fentiman60%0/1R A Fahey70%
523310
5.0Class ↓5
Cheek pieces

In good heart prior to showing improved form to get off the mark in 3-y-o handicap at Southwell (1½m) in September. Ran too badly to be true at Ayr subsequently and now given another try in cheekpieces.

Class Advantage

9/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above9/06 · mark par9/0611/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above11/07 · mark par25/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above25/07 · mark par13/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above13/08 · mark par3/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above3/09 · mark par18/09 · C5 · finish vs mark below18/09 · mark par18/09projClass-projected finish: 4th of 11
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength46%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 4f 98y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 5 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 56%9/06Pos 2 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 2 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 80%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 78%25/07Pos 3 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 3 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 50%Pos 1 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 100%3/09Pos 10 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 10 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 0%18/09
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength55%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -17.9%Ahead 1/4
3
4
OR 70
16/1
Clansman silks

Mrs C M Clarke, Foulrice Park Racing L

Clansman

8yo Gelding · 10-2

Nathaniel - Pearl Dance (Nureyev)

Billy Garritty60%4/15L Bailey
133107
5.0

Dual winner in the spring but was again below form back in the right grade at Beverley latest. Bounce back required.

Class Advantage

12/03 · C5 · finish vs mark above12/03 · mark par12/037/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above7/04 · mark par20/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above20/04 · mark par29/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above29/04 · mark par27/06 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above27/06 · mark par29/08 · C5 · finish vs mark below29/08 · mark par29/08projClass-projected finish: 6th of 11
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength44%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 4f 98y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 1 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 100%12/03Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 33%Pos 3 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 60%20/04Pos 1 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 1 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 100%Pos 17 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 17 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 16%27/06Pos 7 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 7 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 14%29/08
Projected finish7th of 1140% of fieldRange 7-11 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +3.9%Ahead 2/4
11
11
OR 61
12/1
Beckon silks

Wee Dude Racing & Michael Darrah

Beckon

3yo Filly · 9-1

Ulysses - Phillimore (Invincible Spirit)

Cam Hardie70%S Corbett
639905
2.0

Course winner who showed first signs of life for her new yard taking a marked step up in distance when fifth of 12 in a C&D handicap last week, unable to sustain effort. Task is now to build on that.

Class Advantage

17/01 · C5 · finish vs mark above17/01 · mark par17/0115/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above15/04 · mark par10/08 · C5 · finish vs mark below10/08 · mark par19/08 · C5 · finish vs mark below19/08 · mark par9/09 · C6 · finish vs mark below9/09 · mark par25/09 · C6 · finish vs mark above25/09 · mark par25/09projClass-projected finish: 9th of 11
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength29%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 4f 98y · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 6 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 38%17/01Pos 3 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 3 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 67%Pos 9 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 11%10/08Pos 9 · SP 125/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 125/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 14 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 14 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 28%9/09Pos 5 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 64%25/09
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength61%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +25.6%Ahead 3/4
10
8
OR 55
16/1
Sophiesticate silks

The Market Traders

Sophiesticate

7yo Mare · 9-1

War Command - Lenoire (Galileo)

Shay Farmer1/3−5lbR M Smith
333168
4.0

Gained a deserved fourth success at Musselburgh (13f) in July. Well below par back on softer ground since, though, and hasn't shown much on 2 previous tries on all-weather.

Class Advantage

22/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above22/06 · mark par22/0630/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above30/06 · mark par20/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above20/07 · mark par31/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above31/07 · mark par2/09 · C6 · finish vs mark above2/09 · mark par18/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above18/09 · mark par18/09projClass-projected finish: 8th of 11
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength29%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 4f 98y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 3 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 60%22/06Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 60%Pos 3 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 3 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 78%20/07Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 100%Pos 6 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 6 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 29%2/09Pos 8 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 22%18/09
Projected finish9th of 1120% of fieldRange 7-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength18%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +9.4%Ahead 3/4
2
9
OR 70
25/1
Rodoya silks

Niall O'keeffe & Julie Camacho

Rodoya

4yo Filly · 10-2

Persian King - Royana (Sea The Stars)

Tom Kiely-Marshall60%Miss J A Camacho60%
138688
2.0
Blinkers

Won 1½m maiden in France. Has yet to fire in 4 starts for current yard, though is entitled to strip fitter for the run here on her most recent outing given it came after an 8-month absence.

Class Advantage

30/05 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a30/0521/06 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a8/10 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below8/10 · mark par1/12 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below1/12 · mark par15/01 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below15/01 · mark par3/09 · C5 · finish vs mark below3/09 · mark par3/09projClass-projected finish: 10th of 11
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength46%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 4f 98y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 1 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 100%30/05Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 50%Pos 8 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 13%8/10Pos 6 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 8 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 13%15/01Pos 8 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 13%3/09
Projected finish10th of 1110% of fieldRange 7-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +9.4%Ahead 3/4
9
10
OR 64
20/1
Sogniamo silks

Aurelius Racing

Sogniamo

3yo Filly · 9-4

Oasis Dream - Grace And Favour (Montjeu)

C J Whiteley60%0/1−5lbD O'Meara100%
175688
2.0
Cheek piecesTongue strap

Has struggled since winning a Hamilton novice (80/1) on stable debut/ reappearance in May, hitting a new low tried in a first-time tongue strap and cheekpieces combination back at aforementioned track last time. Upped in trip for her first start on tapeta.

Class Advantage

27/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a27/0519/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above19/06 · mark par17/07 · C5 · finish vs mark below17/07 · mark par11/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above11/08 · mark par22/08 · C5 · finish vs mark below22/08 · mark par20/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above20/09 · mark par20/09projClass-projected finish: 11th of 11
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength47%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 4f 98y

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 1 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 100%27/05Pos 7 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 7 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 25%Pos 5 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 5 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 0%17/07Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 38%Pos 8 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 8 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 13%22/08Pos 8 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 13%20/09
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 6-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -17.9%Ahead 1/4