15:24 · Salisbury

Barbara Snow 60th Birthday Celebration Handicap (Div 1)

1m 1f 201yGoing TBCClass 43YO plusTURFHandicap13 runners
Ordered by projected finish
2
Market FavTop Pick1
OR 82
9/4
Bnaider silks

Ahmed Y Al-sabah

3yo Gelding · 9-12

New Bay - Rivercat (Kitten's Joy)

Lewis Edmunds60%Harry Charlton
44341
7.0

Lightly-raced 3-y-o. Built on his solid reappearance form when readily off the mark in a Haydock handicap in May, justifying good support in the process. That form has worked out well, with 3 next-time-out winners in behind. Fancied to follow up if ready to roll on first start against his elders.

Class Advantage

13/08 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a13/085/09 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a24/10 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a24/04 · C4 · finish vs mark above24/04 · mark par22/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above22/05 · mark par22/05projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 13
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength5%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 1f 201y · 60%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 67%13/08Pos 4 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 4 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 63%5/09Pos 3 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 3 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 78%24/10Pos 4 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 4 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 40%24/04Pos 1 · SP 5/4 | Expected: 93%Pos 1 · SP 5/4 | Actual: 100%22/05
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 2-13 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength45%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +6.3%Ahead 2/4
1
3
OR 79
5/1
Dancing Tiger silks

Homecroft Wealth Racing

4yo Gelding · 9-13

Starspangledbanner - Dream Approach (New Approach)

Owen Lewis60%2/4−5lbR A Teal60%
622401
6.0
Blinkers

Quirky sort. Presumably benefited from the freshener of a headgear change (still went in snatches) when doubling his tally for the year in this grade at Sandown (1¼m) last time. Remains one to treat with caution off 4 lb higher here.

Class Advantage

4/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above4/05 · mark par4/0518/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above18/05 · mark par5/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above5/06 · mark par23/07 · C5 · finish vs mark below23/07 · mark par31/08 · C4 · finish vs mark below31/08 · mark par11/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above11/09 · mark par11/09projClass-projected finish: 6th of 13
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 1f 201y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 6 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 44%4/05Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 86%Pos 2 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 2 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 88%5/06Pos 4 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 4 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 12 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 12 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 15%31/08Pos 1 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 1 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 100%11/09
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength91%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +2.7%Ahead 2/4
3
Value2
OR 78
12/1
Morcar silks

Mrs Johnny de la Hey

6yo Gelding · 9-12

Saxon Warrior - Loved So Much (Dansili)

P J Dobbs2/9R Hannon70%
561262
7.0Going 8.0
Blinkers

Capitalised on a drop in grade at Newbury (1¼m, firm) in July. Runner-up 2 of his 3 starts since, beaten 5½ lengths (fourth won since) at Windsor latest. Capable of hitting the frame again off an unchanged mark.

Class Advantage

9/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above9/05 · mark par9/051/06 · C4 · finish vs mark below1/06 · mark par2/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above2/07 · mark par13/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above13/07 · mark par23/07 · C4 · finish vs mark below23/07 · mark par24/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above24/08 · mark par24/08projClass-projected finish: 5th of 13
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength31%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 1f 201y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 5 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 43%9/05Pos 6 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 6 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 17%Pos 1 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 1 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 100%2/07Pos 2 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 2 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 83%Pos 6 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 6 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 0%23/07Pos 2 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 2 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 83%24/08
Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 4-13 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength41%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +10.1%Ahead 3/4
7
5
OR 77
12/1
Kudos Too silks

Mrs R F Greener And North Farm Stud

3yo Gelding · 9-7

Aclaim - Specific Dream (Danehill Dancer)

Tom Marquand70%W Muir & C Grassick
535
4.0

Didn't match the form of his previous 2 efforts when beaten 11 lengths on qualifying run at Kempton (11f), looking a bit ungainly. Hard to be confident he'll make any immediate impact in handicaps off this mark, even with Tom Marquand booked.

Class Advantage

13/06 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a13/0614/07 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a14/075/08 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a5/08projClass-projected finish: 1st of 13
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength71%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 1f 201y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 20%13/06Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 60%14/07Pos 5 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 5 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 56%5/08
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength56%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +10.1%Ahead 2/3
8
4
OR 77
10/1
Felix Gem silks

Hp Racing Felix Gem

3yo Gelding · 9-7

Ulysses - Burgonet (Helmet)

Callum Hutchinson60%1/1Eve Johnson Houghton60%
5214
5.0

Low-mileage 3-y-o. Progressed again to open his account at the expense of 2 next-time-out winners at Chelmsford (1m) in February. Off since disappointing on handicap bow at Lingfield (1¼m) the following month, however, he isn't discounted if back on song for his turf debut.

Class Advantage

22/12 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a22/1216/01 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a16/0126/02 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a26/0220/03 · C4 · finish vs mark above20/03 · mark par20/03projClass-projected finish: 4th of 13
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 1f 201y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 5 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 64%22/12Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 75%16/01Pos 1 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 1 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 100%26/02Pos 4 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 4 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 40%20/03
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 10-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -7.0%Ahead 2/4
11
6
OR 69
12/1
Hello Cotai silks

Ownaracehorse And J R Boyle

5yo Gelding · 9-3

Cotai Glory - Hellofahaste (Hellvelyn)

P Cosgrave60%1/2J R Boyle
134417
5.0Going 8.0

Probably shade high in the weights, having been seen to maximum effect from the front when resuming winning ways at Epsom (1¼m) in late-August. Subsequent effort under contrasting conditions at Goodwood (heavy) can at least be forgiven, when always on back foot following typically tardy start.

Class Advantage

1/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above1/06 · mark par1/061/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above1/07 · mark par16/07 · C5 · finish vs mark below16/07 · mark par10/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above10/08 · mark par31/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above31/08 · mark par8/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above8/09 · mark par8/09projClass-projected finish: 10th of 13
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength26%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 1f 201y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 1 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 100%1/06Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 75%Pos 4 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 4 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 0%16/07Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 40%Pos 1 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 1 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 100%31/08Pos 7 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 7 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 33%8/09
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 3-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength21%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -22.1%Ahead 1/4
4
8
OR 80
8/1
Maldives silks

Amo Racing Limited

3yo Filly · 9-10

Camelot - Sense Of Style (Zoffany)

D Egan60%0/3K P De Foy
260
4.0Class ↓4

2,900,000 gns Camelot filly who made a promising start when runner-up in 1¼m novice at Yarmouth. Trailed the field in listed/Group 2 company subsequently. Sights significantly lowered on return from 15 weeks away, though handicapper hasn't taken any chances with her opening mark.

Class Advantage

11/04 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a11/043/05 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a3/0518/06 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a18/06projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 13
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼3
Strength90%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 1f 201y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 2 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 83%11/04Pos 6 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 6 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 0%3/05Pos 11 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 9%18/06
Projected finish7th of 1350% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength33%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -8.7%Ahead 2/3
12
7
OR 71
10/1
Mr Seagull silks

Two Plus Three Two Plus Four

3yo Gelding · 9-1

Space Blues - Bayja (Giant's Causeway)

Jason Watson70%1/1H Palmer90%
465045
3.0
Visor

Fairly useful juvenile winner last season. Fallen a long way in the weights in handicaps this year. Sent off favourite when 4½ lengths behind Dancing Tiger at Sandown latest, having raced up with a true gallop. Could be worth a chance off this sort of mark.

Class Advantage

23/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above23/05 · mark par23/0512/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above12/06 · mark par10/07 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above10/07 · mark par30/07 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above30/07 · mark par16/08 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above16/08 · mark par11/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above11/09 · mark par11/09projClass-projected finish: 7th of 13
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength62%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 1f 201y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 4 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 67%23/05Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 38%Pos 5 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 5 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 60%10/07Pos 14 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 14 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 28%Pos 4 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 4 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 57%16/08Pos 5 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 5 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 33%11/09
Projected finish8th of 1342% of fieldRange 7-13 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength18%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -2.1%Ahead 2/4
10
9
OR 74
12/1
Arbaawy silks

Adnan Bahbahani

3yo Colt · 9-4

Palace Pier - Crying Lightening (Holy Roman Emperor)

Colin KeaneJ Butler60%
334036
4.0
Cheek pieces

Maiden who had fairly useful form in 3-y-o handicaps in first half of this year. Offered hope of a revival when beaten 3¼ lengths at Epsom last time (hampered/seemed unsuited by track). May build on that with Colin Keane booked/cheekpieces back on, provided he stays this longer trip.

Class Advantage

8/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above8/05 · mark par8/0516/05 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above16/05 · mark par13/06 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above13/06 · mark par10/07 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above10/07 · mark par4/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above4/08 · mark par10/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above10/09 · mark par10/09projClass-projected finish: 8th of 13
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength49%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 1f 201y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 80%8/05Pos 3 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 78%Pos 4 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 4 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 25%13/06Pos 10 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 10 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 10%Pos 3 · SP 13/8 | Expected: 91%Pos 3 · SP 13/8 | Actual: 71%4/08Pos 6 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 6 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 44%10/09
Projected finish9th of 1333% of fieldRange 11-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -42.7%Ahead 0/4
13
13
OR 62
16/1
Albus Anne silks

Mr Y T Mehmet

7yo Mare · 8-10

Mayson - Asmahan (Casamento)

Olivia Haines60%−7lbJ C Fox
167466
3.0
Hood

Completed a double in soft-ground handicaps at Bath last autumn (has also won on good over same C&D). Dipped below her latest winning mark for the first time when again failing to fire on return there last time. Probably one for when the rain arrives.

Class Advantage

30/10 · C5 · finish vs mark above30/10 · mark par30/1019/11 · C5 · finish vs mark above19/11 · mark par3/12 · C5 · finish vs mark above3/12 · mark par9/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above9/06 · mark par29/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above29/08 · mark par13/09 · C5 · finish vs mark above13/09 · mark par13/09projClass-projected finish: 12th of 13
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 1f 201y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 100%30/10Pos 6 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 55%Pos 7 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 40%3/12Pos 4 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 4 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 6 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 6 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 29%29/08Pos 6 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 6 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 44%13/09
Projected finish10th of 1325% of fieldRange 6-13 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength28%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +10.5%Ahead 3/4
5
10
OR 75
33/1
Alcaraz silks

Downs House Racing

7yo Gelding · 9-9

Intello - Terre (Motivator)

Charles Bishop0/1George Baker
228500
2.0Going 8.0Class ↓3

Ex-Spanish gelding who was runner-up in 1¼m handicaps at Newbury and Sandown for Tom Dascombe last year. No show in 3 starts for current connections this season, though.

Class Advantage

24/07 · C4 · finish vs mark above24/07 · mark par24/0719/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above19/09 · mark par25/10 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above25/10 · mark par21/05 · C4 · finish vs mark below21/05 · mark par1/08 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark below1/08 · mark par30/08 · C4 · finish vs mark below30/08 · mark par30/08projClass-projected finish: 13th of 13
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength33%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 1f 201y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 2 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 86%24/07Pos 2 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 2 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 91%Pos 8 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 8 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 42%25/10Pos 5 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 5 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 20%Pos 14 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 14 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 7%1/08Pos 10 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 10 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 0%30/08
Projected finish11th of 1317% of fieldRange 9-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -12.4%Ahead 2/4
6
11
OR 78
20/1
Oracle Mission silks

Mr K Lie And Partner

3yo Gelding · 9-8

Wootton Bassett - Carleen (Sepoy)

Pierre-Louis Jamin60%1/3Harry Eustace
318
5.0

Backed up encouraging debut effort when winning Lingfield novice (7f) last December. Subsequently showed nothing in first-time blinkers on handicap debut/return on the turf course there in May. Bred to stay this significantly longer trip but further 4-month absence tempers enthusiasm.

Class Advantage

20/11 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a20/118/12 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a8/129/05 · C4 · finish vs mark below9/05 · mark par9/05projClass-projected finish: 9th of 13
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 1f 201y

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 3 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 78%20/11Pos 1 · SP 4/6 | Expected: 96%Pos 1 · SP 4/6 | Actual: 100%8/12Pos 8 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 8 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 0%9/05
Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 13-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -8.0%Ahead 2/3
9
12
OR 72
16/1
Barry's Boy silks

Connect Oil Limited

4yo Gelding · 9-6

Invincible Army - Doors To Manual (Royal Academy)

George Bass60%2/11D J Coakley
215926
4.0

Dual 1m handicap winner. Ran his best race off this mark when runner-up at Wolverhampton on penultimate start. Possibly wasn't firing on all cylinders when down the field at Lingfield 7 weeks ago. Returns in a better race than he has been contesting of late, though.

Class Advantage

15/12 · C5 · finish vs mark above15/12 · mark par15/1221/03 · C5 · finish vs mark above21/03 · mark par9/05 · C4 · finish vs mark above9/05 · mark par2/06 · C5 · finish vs mark below2/06 · mark par6/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above6/07 · mark par13/08 · C5 · finish vs mark below13/08 · mark par13/08projClass-projected finish: 11th of 13
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength27%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 1f 201y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 2 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 83%15/12Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 100%Pos 5 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 5 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 60%9/05Pos 9 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 9 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 27%Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 89%6/07Pos 6 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 6 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 29%13/08
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 7-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -24.5%Ahead 1/4