17:06 · Southwell

Simon Davis Big 60th Birthday Bash Fillies' Handicap

1m 14yGoing TBCClass 53YO plusALLWEATHERHandicap11 runners
Ordered by projected finish
1
Value2
OR 6711/2
Dream Illusion silks

Mrs J Lewis

4yo Filly · 9-13

Oasis Dream - Triple Star (Royal Applause)

Jason Hart60%0/2M Herrington
862024
6.0

Won twice over C&D earlier this year and has remained in good form on turf recently, finishing fourth of 8 at Yarmouth over 7f 29 days ago. Returns to all-weather and back up to 1m with leading claims.

Class Advantage

27/03 · C5 · finish vs mark below27/03 · mark par27/035/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above5/04 · mark par29/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above29/04 · mark par15/05 · C5 · finish vs mark below15/05 · mark par4/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above4/06 · mark par8/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above8/07 · mark par8/07projClass-projected finish: 6th of 11
Class readAT LEVEL
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength23%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 14y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 8 · SP 9/5 | Expected: 91%Pos 8 · SP 9/5 | Actual: 13%27/03Pos 6 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 6 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 29%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 88%29/04Pos 12 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 12 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 8%Pos 2 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 89%4/06Pos 4 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 4 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 57%8/07
Projected finish1st of 11
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength78%
ExpectedActualTrend
6
Top Pick1
OR 6416/1
Filly Eilish silks

Ontoawinner & Partner

3yo Filly · 9-9

Phoenix Of Spain - Billie Eria (Tamayuz)

S De Sousa60%1/1I Furtado
32661
6.0

Off the mark over C&D in a 13-runner handicap 10 days ago, improving on the back of a breathing operation and, though looking fortunate to beat the runner-up on the day, that one has already won since so she could be well treated under a penalty.

Class Advantage

11/02 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a11/0213/03 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a21/03 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a5/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above5/06 · mark par27/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above27/07 · mark par27/07projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 11
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength42%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 14y · 80%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 100/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 100/1 | Actual: 67%11/02Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 80%13/03Pos 6 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 6 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 38%21/03Pos 6 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 17%5/06Pos 1 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 1 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 100%27/07
Projected finish2nd of 11
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength56%
ExpectedActualTrend
2
4
OR 656/1
Kiss Me My Love silks

Nextgen Racing Club

4yo Filly · 9-11

Invincible Spirit - Love Street (Kitten's Joy)

Joanna Mason60%2/8Roger Fell
219301
6.0Class ↓5

Unbeaten at Redcar and won apprentice event there 8 days ago in a field of 7, bouncing back from a lamentable York effort. Escapes a penalty for that success so needs taking seriously assuming the return to all-weather suits her as well.

Class Advantage

2/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above2/05 · mark par2/0518/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above18/05 · mark par3/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above3/06 · mark par9/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above9/07 · mark par25/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above25/07 · mark par29/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above29/07 · mark par29/07projClass-projected finish: 4th of 11
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength47%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 14y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 88%2/05Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 100%Pos 9 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 9 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 27%3/06Pos 3 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 3 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 67%Pos 13 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 13 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 14%25/07Pos 1 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 1 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 100%29/07
Projected finish3rd of 11
SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend
Strength69%
ExpectedActualTrend
4
6
OR 6511/4
Ravishing Beauty silks

Kielder Newport West Ltd

5yo Mare · 9-11

Camelot - Shaden (Kodiac)

J Garritty60%2/12Jedd O'Keeffe60%
387133
6.0
Cheek pieces

Won at Carlisle in June and placed at Pontefract both starts since. Needs to prove she's as good on all-weather.

Class Advantage

14/10 · C5 · finish vs mark above14/10 · mark par14/1025/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above25/04 · mark par16/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above16/05 · mark par8/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above8/06 · mark par21/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above21/06 · mark par17/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above17/07 · mark par17/07projClass-projected finish: 5th of 11
Class readAT LEVEL
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength23%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 14y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 3 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 60%14/10Pos 8 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 8 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 22%Pos 7 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 45%16/05Pos 1 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 1 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 3 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 67%21/06Pos 3 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 3 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 67%17/07
Projected finish4th of 11
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength91%
ExpectedActualTrend
10
5
OR 626/4
Blue Celestial silks

Purple'nblues

3yo Filly · 9-1

Advertise - Forbidden Love (Dubawi)

C Lee70%0/1J Tate60%
324362
5.0

Better on all-weather and ran well when second of 10 in a handicap at Wolverhampton 16 days ago, getting headed dying strides after leading over 1f out. 4 lb higher mark in a better race to contend with.

Class Advantage

30/04 · C6 · finish vs mark above30/04 · mark par30/0420/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above20/05 · mark par31/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above31/05 · mark par28/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above28/06 · mark par8/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above8/07 · mark par21/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above21/07 · mark par21/07projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 11
Class readAT LEVEL
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength24%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 14y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 82%30/04Pos 2 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 2 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 92%Pos 4 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 4 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 50%31/05Pos 3 · SP 6/5 | Expected: 94%Pos 3 · SP 6/5 | Actual: 80%Pos 6 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 6 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 58%8/07Pos 2 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 2 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 89%21/07
Projected finish5th of 11
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength69%
ExpectedActualTrend
5
Market Fav3
OR 7010/11
Hauteluce silks

Mr Robert Ng

3yo Filly · 9-9

Romanised - Justice Belle (Montjeu)

Ashley Lewis70%1/2−3lbE Walker
513
6.0

Beat subsequent winner when won a maiden over 9.5f on all-weather at Wolverhampton in June but no real progress when third of 5 in a novice at Nottingham 20 days ago, perhaps unsuited by firmish turf. Handicap debut back on all-weather and dropped in trip so she is one to take seriously.

Class Advantage

2/12 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a2/1228/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a28/0617/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above17/07 · mark par17/07projClass-projected finish: 1st of 11
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength55%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 14y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 60%2/12Pos 1 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 1 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 100%28/06Pos 3 · SP 10/11 | Expected: 95%Pos 3 · SP 10/11 | Actual: 50%17/07
Projected finish6th of 11
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength4%
ExpectedActualTrend
7
7
OR 6812/1
Zarinca silks

Mr P R C Morrison

3yo Filly · 9-7

Expert Eye - Plucky (Kyllachy)

Connor Beasley60%E Bethell
271654
4.0

Won at this course in April but not in same form on turf next 2 starts. Got back on track when fourth of 11 in handicap at Wolverhampton 20 days ago but needs to improve further for this step up to 1m.

Class Advantage

19/09 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a19/097/10 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a25/04 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a2/06 · C5 · finish vs mark below2/06 · mark par4/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above4/07 · mark par17/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above17/07 · mark par17/07projClass-projected finish: 7th of 11
Class readAT LEVEL
AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move
Strength18%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 14y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 2 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 91%19/09Pos 7 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 7 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 50%Pos 1 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 1 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 100%25/04Pos 6 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 6 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 29%Pos 5 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 5 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 33%4/07Pos 4 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 4 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 70%17/07
Projected finish7th of 11
SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend
Strength20%
ExpectedActualTrend
8
8
OR 6715/2
Court Of Stars silks

Nick Bradley Racing 15 & Partner

3yo Filly · 9-6

Inns Of Court - Cheherazad (Elusive City)

L Morris70%Ollie Sangster60%
122460
3.0

Started 3-y-o campaign well, winning at Kempton and then in frame next 3 starts but she has lost her way last 2 outings and now has something to prove.

Class Advantage

4/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above4/05 · mark par4/0518/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above18/05 · mark par29/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above29/05 · mark par15/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above15/06 · mark par28/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above28/06 · mark par17/07 · C5 · finish vs mark below17/07 · mark par17/07projClass-projected finish: 9th of 11
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength33%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 14y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 100%4/05Pos 2 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 2 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 89%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 90%29/05Pos 4 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 4 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 63%Pos 6 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 44%28/06Pos 10 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 10 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 10%17/07
Projected finish8th of 11
RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend
Strength50%
ExpectedActualTrend
9
10
OR 6716/1
Zermatt Star silks

Mr Gary Downie

3yo Filly · 9-6

Lucky Vega - Benefaction (Nathaniel)

D NolanT Coyle & K Wood
65004
3.0

Ran creditably when fourth of 5 at Hamilton 20 days ago on first run for new yard/in Britain. Makes all-weather debut and is hard to weigh up given her unexposed nature.

Class Advantage

16/09 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a16/0920/10 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a4/04 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a11/05 · C7 · finish vs mark below11/05 · mark par17/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above17/07 · mark par17/07projClass-projected finish: 11th of 11
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move2
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 14y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 38%16/09Pos 5 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 5 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 60%20/10Pos 11 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 11 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 0%4/04Pos 10 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 10 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 31%11/05Pos 4 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 4 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 25%17/07
Projected finish9th of 11
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength15%
ExpectedActualTrend
3
9
OR 6566/1
Kartini silks

Messrs Clayton, Sparks & Galloway

4yo Filly · 9-11

Dark Angel - Tranquil Star (Galileo)

T Eaves60%S Whitaker
344926
4.0

Best effort for Oliver Cole when second over 1¼m at Chelmsford in November but could hardly have shown any less when sixth of 6 dropped back to 1m at Pontefract 20 days ago on first outing for new yard after 8 months. Needs a lot more back on all-weather.

Class Advantage

2/10 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a2/1013/10 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a22/10 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a7/11 · C5 · finish vs mark below7/11 · mark par26/11 · C6 · finish vs mark above26/11 · mark par17/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above17/07 · mark par17/07projClass-projected finish: 8th of 11
Class readCOMPETITIVE
AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move
Strength31%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 14y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 3 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 50%2/10Pos 4 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 4 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 4 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 4 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 73%22/10Pos 9 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 9 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 11%Pos 2 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 2 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 89%26/11Pos 6 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 0%17/07
Projected finish10th of 11
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength1%
ExpectedActualTrend
11
11
OR 5712/1
Gifts Differing silks

Hasmonean Racing And Partner

3yo Filly · 8-10

Teofilo - Queen Of Desire (Dubawi)

Jonny Peate60%R Burdon
65566
2.0

Didn't achieve a great deal for James Ferguson and looks best watched starting out for a new yard.

Class Advantage

3/08 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a3/0826/02 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a20/03 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a14/04 · C6 · finish vs mark below14/04 · mark par13/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above13/06 · mark par13/06projClass-projected finish: 10th of 11
Class readCOMPETITIVE
RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move
Strength29%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 14y · 80%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 0%3/08Pos 5 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 50%26/02Pos 5 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 43%20/03Pos 6 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 6 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 17%14/04Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 29%13/06
Projected finish11th of 11
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength12%
ExpectedActualTrend