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17:00 · Ayr

Sunday Roast At Western House Hotel Handicap

5fGoing TBCClass 63YO plusTURFHandicap13 runners
Ordered by projected finish
11
Value2
OR 5628/1
Supremissy silks

Crown Tavern Lanark Ltd

Supremissy

3yo Filly · 9-2

Supremacy - Divine Celt (Lawman)

A Mullen70%1/2I Jardine
0U931
6.0Going 7.0

Much improved when making successful handicap debut at Musselburgh (5f) 7 weeks ago, settling better off the pace and reeling in the trailblazing runner-up late in the day. Up just 2 lb and should get things run to suit again.

Class Advantage

9/09 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a9/0919/03 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a19/033/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a3/0522/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above22/06 · mark par22/06projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 13
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength69%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 10 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 0%9/09Pos 9 · SP 200/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 200/1 | Actual: 20%19/03Pos 3 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 33%3/05Pos 1 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 1 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 100%22/06
Projected finish1st of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
3
5
OR 6110/1
Harb silks

Border Raiders Ii

Harb

7yo Gelding · 9-10

Muhaarar - Maid For Winning (Gone West)

Lexie Clarkson0/1−7lbT Davidson
168304
5.0Class ↓3

Doubled his tally for the year at Carlisle in May. Mixed record since but would have finished closer with a clearer passage at Hamilton last week and back below last winning mark. Took this last season.

Class Advantage

18/05 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above18/05 · mark par18/054/06 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark below4/06 · mark par26/06 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above26/06 · mark par11/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above11/07 · mark par25/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above25/07 · mark par1/08 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above1/08 · mark par1/08projClass-projected finish: 6th of 13
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength63%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 1 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 100%18/05Pos 6 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 6 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 0%Pos 8 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 36%26/06Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 71%Pos 11 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 38%25/07Pos 4 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 4 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 70%1/08
Projected finish2nd of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength96%
ExpectedActualTrend
2
3
OR 644/1
King Of The Jungle silks

Laura Mason Syndicate Racing

King Of The Jungle

6yo Gelding · 9-13

Bungle Inthejungle - Bonne (Namid)

Billy Garritty60%1/7M & D Easterby
625011
8.0

As good as ever, taking 5f Beverley handicap (good form) and C&D contest the last twice. Up to a career-high mark but manner of latest success here suggests he can go well in hat-trick bid.

Class Advantage

7/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above7/06 · mark par7/0627/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above27/06 · mark par15/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above15/07 · mark par3/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above3/05 · mark par27/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above27/05 · mark par20/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above20/06 · mark par20/06projClass-projected finish: 4th of 13
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength30%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 6 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 29%7/06Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 92%Pos 5 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 5 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 20%15/07Pos 10 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 10 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 18%Pos 1 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 1 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 100%27/05Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 100%20/06
Projected finish3rd of 13
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength83%
ExpectedActualTrend
5
4
OR 604/1
Startling silks

Mr K Nicholson

Startling

4yo Filly · 9-9

Zoustar - Pepper Lane (Exceed And Excel)

Jason Hart0/1J S Wainwright70%
832242
7.0
1st Blinkers +3

A 4-time winner over 5f for David O'Meara and proving consistent in defeat for current yard, running another sound race to hit the frame for the fifth successive time when second over C&D 12 days ago. Blinkers now tried (won in first-time hood at 2 yrs). One to consider.

Class Advantage

18/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above18/05 · mark par18/055/06 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above5/06 · mark par18/06 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above18/06 · mark par25/06 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above25/06 · mark par18/07 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above18/07 · mark par27/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above27/07 · mark par27/07projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 13
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength67%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 8 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 30%18/05Pos 3 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 80%Pos 2 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 2 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 86%18/06Pos 2 · SP 4/6 | Expected: 96%Pos 2 · SP 4/6 | Actual: 50%Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 25%18/07Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 86%27/07
Projected finish4th of 13
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength59%
ExpectedActualTrend
8
8
OR 579/2
Harry Mole silks

Debbie Hodson

Harry Mole

4yo Gelding · 9-6

Bungle Inthejungle - Spirit Ranger (Invincible Spirit)

D C Costello60%0/5Steph Hollinshead
405223
7.0Going 8.0

Lightly-raced maiden who arrives in good form, doing well having taken a strong hold when third in blanket finish in 5f Chester handicap a fortnight ago, faring best of those ridden close up. Same mark and one to bet on.

Class Advantage

25/11 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a25/1125/04 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above25/04 · mark par18/05 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above18/05 · mark par5/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above5/06 · mark par13/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above13/06 · mark par25/07 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above25/07 · mark par25/07projClass-projected finish: 1st of 13
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength59%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 57%25/11Pos 10 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 10%Pos 5 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 56%18/05Pos 2 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 2 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 91%Pos 2 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 2 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 92%13/06Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 80%25/07
Projected finish5th of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength84%
ExpectedActualTrend
7
Market Fav10
OR 589/4
South Parade silks

Richard Fahey Ebor Racing Club Ltd

South Parade

5yo Mare · 9-7

Invincible Army - Rural Celebration (Pastoral Pursuits)

Ethan Tindall60%0/2−5lbR A Fahey60%
074963
4.0Class ↓3

On a career-low mark and turned in best effort of the season down in class when third at Musselburgh last week. Interesting if able to build on that.

Class Advantage

16/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above16/05 · mark par16/0528/05 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark below28/05 · mark par10/06 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above10/06 · mark par21/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above21/06 · mark par6/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above6/07 · mark par31/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above31/07 · mark par31/07projClass-projected finish: 8th of 13
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength67%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 12 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 12 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 31%16/05Pos 7 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 7 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 14%Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 50%10/06Pos 9 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 9 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 6 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 38%6/07Pos 3 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 3 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 60%31/07
Projected finish6th of 13
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength89%
ExpectedActualTrend
1
Top Pick1
OR 6512/1
Hi Lord silks

Mrs M S Teversham

Hi Lord

4yo Gelding · 10-0

Due Diligence - Lady Phill (Avonbridge)

Barry McHugh60%1/5W G Harrison
051373
6.0Going 8.0Class ↓3

Won 5f handicap at Hamilton in May and quickly back to form when third, beaten 2 lengths, in C&D handicap a month ago. Can go well again back down in class.

Class Advantage

10/03 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark below10/03 · mark par10/0321/04 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above21/04 · mark par3/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above3/05 · mark par4/06 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above4/06 · mark par10/06 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark below10/06 · mark par13/07 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above13/07 · mark par13/07projClass-projected finish: 5th of 13
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength70%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 10 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 10%10/03Pos 5 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 5 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 43%Pos 1 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 1 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 100%3/05Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 60%Pos 7 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 7 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 0%10/06Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 80%13/07
Projected finish7th of 13
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength22%
ExpectedActualTrend
6
9
OR 593/1
Midnight Lir silks

Denton Hall Racing Ltd

Midnight Lir

5yo Gelding · 9-8

Prince Of Lir - Kerineya (Elusive City)

Sean Kirrane60%0/1M Dods90%
093444
5.0Class ↓3
1st Blinkers +3Tongue strap

On a long losing run but now a whopping 24 lb lower than last winning mark and caught the eye at Thirsk last time (eased off and lost third close home). Could pop up soon.

Class Advantage

2/10 · C6 · finish vs mark below2/10 · mark par2/103/05 · C6 · finish vs mark below3/05 · mark par29/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above29/05 · mark par16/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above16/06 · mark par5/07 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above5/07 · mark par24/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above24/07 · mark par24/07projClass-projected finish: 7th of 13
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength41%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 12 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 12 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 8%2/10Pos 9 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 9 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 27%Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 78%29/05Pos 4 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 4 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 67%Pos 4 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 4 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 50%5/07Pos 4 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 4 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 63%24/07
Projected finish8th of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength77%
ExpectedActualTrend
9
11
OR 554/1
Keep The Gold silks

Slaters Arms Racing Club

Keep The Gold

4yo Gelding · 9-4

Havana Gold - Keep The Secret (Sakhee's Secret)

Lewis Edmunds60%0/2M Dods60%
322549
4.0Class ↓3
Cheek pieces

Maiden proving inconsistent this year and didn't convince with his attitude here (6f) last month. Change of headgear (has finished runner-up twice over 5f when fitted with cheekpieces).

Class Advantage

31/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above31/05 · mark par31/0520/06 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above20/06 · mark par5/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above5/05 · mark par5/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above5/06 · mark par20/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above20/06 · mark par6/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above6/07 · mark par6/07projClass-projected finish: 9th of 13
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength44%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 75%31/05Pos 2 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 2 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 83%Pos 2 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 2 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 88%5/05Pos 5 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 5 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 64%Pos 4 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 4 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 57%20/06Pos 9 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 9 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 33%6/07
Projected finish9th of 13
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength83%
ExpectedActualTrend
4
6
OR 605/1
Water Of Leith silks

Adam Mills And Jonnie Delta Racing

Water Of Leith

8yo Gelding · 9-9

Kodiac - Zakhrafa (Shamardal)

P Mulrennan60%3/21J S Goldie
655365
5.0Class ↓3

Gained deserved success at Wolverhampton (6f) in March. Ticking over here of late but has been given a chance by the handicapper.

Class Advantage

4/04 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above4/04 · mark par4/0429/04 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above29/04 · mark par4/06 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above4/06 · mark par5/07 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above5/07 · mark par13/07 · C6 · finish vs mark below13/07 · mark par27/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above27/07 · mark par27/07projClass-projected finish: 10th of 13
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength65%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 6 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 55%4/04Pos 5 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 5 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 43%Pos 5 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 5 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 20%4/06Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 67%Pos 6 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 6 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 29%13/07Pos 5 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 5 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 50%27/07
Projected finish10th of 13
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength24%
ExpectedActualTrend
12
7
OR 465/1
Royal Duke silks

Mr Steve Dick

Royal Duke

5yo Gelding · 8-9

Music Master - Royal Duchess (Dutch Art)

Shay Farmer60%0/2−5lbR M Smith60%
377565
4.0
Cheek pieces

C&D winner on a long losing run but wasn't seen to best effect here (forced to switch late on, Startling second) a fortnight ago.

Class Advantage

6/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above6/06 · mark par6/0620/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above20/06 · mark par6/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above6/07 · mark par13/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above13/07 · mark par20/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above20/07 · mark par27/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above27/07 · mark par27/07projClass-projected finish: 13th of 13
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 3 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 67%6/06Pos 7 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 7 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 14%Pos 7 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 7 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 50%6/07Pos 5 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 43%Pos 6 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 6 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 0%20/07Pos 5 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 5 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 43%27/07
Projected finish11th of 13
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength38%
ExpectedActualTrend
13
12
OR 459/2
Summerstorms Dream silks

Summerstorm Bloodstock Ltd

Summerstorms Dream

4yo Filly · 8-9

Inns Of Court - Sparks (Elusive City)

Lauren Young0/6−5lbJ S Goldie
357726
4.0

Best efforts have come in 6f course handicaps, including when second last month. Not seen to best effect over C&D a fortnight ago but this is a tougher race and the wait for a first win looks set to continue.

Class Advantage

5/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above5/05 · mark par5/0520/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above20/05 · mark par10/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above10/06 · mark par5/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above5/07 · mark par20/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above20/07 · mark par27/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above27/07 · mark par27/07projClass-projected finish: 11th of 13
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength29%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 67%5/05Pos 5 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 5 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 56%Pos 7 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 7 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 0%10/06Pos 7 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 40%Pos 2 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 2 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 80%20/07Pos 6 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 6 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 29%27/07
Projected finish12th of 13
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength41%
ExpectedActualTrend
10
13
OR 5740/1
Falcon Queen silks

Mr R Michael Smith

Falcon Queen

3yo Filly · 9-3

Earthlight - Elnadim Star (Elnadim)

J P Sullivan60%R M Smith
448968
3.0
Hood

Bred to be useful but it's been a low-key start in handicaps for current connections. Dropping in the weights all the while.

Class Advantage

1/04 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a1/0423/04 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a27/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above27/05 · mark par20/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above20/06 · mark par13/07 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above13/07 · mark par27/07 · C6 · finish vs mark below27/07 · mark par27/07projClass-projected finish: 12th of 13
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength35%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 4 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 57%1/04Pos 4 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 4 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 63%Pos 8 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 0%27/05Pos 9 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 38%Pos 6 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 50%13/07Pos 8 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 13%27/07
Projected finish13th of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength45%
ExpectedActualTrend