19:30 · Ayr

Festive Day Dancing At Ayr Racecourse Classified Stakes

1m 2fGoing TBCClass 63YO plusTURF13 runners
Ordered by projected finish
10
5
OR 4815/2
Flying Moonlight silks

Mrs A M Thomson

3yo Gelding · 9-1

U S Navy Flag - Emirates Flight (New Approach)

Sean Kirrane60%A M Thomson
77733
5.0

Offered little in 3 novices last season for Gary Rutherford but much more encouragement on his return/yard debut when third in a pair of 1m handicaps here so far this year. Less exposed than most here and he's worth a crack at this longer trip.

Class Advantage

4/08 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a4/0823/08 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a1/10 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a19/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above19/06 · mark par6/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above6/07 · mark par6/07projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 13
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength60%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 2f

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 100/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 100/1 | Actual: 0%4/08Pos 7 · SP 150/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 150/1 | Actual: 33%23/08Pos 7 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 14%1/10Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 75%19/06Pos 3 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 3 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 78%6/07
Projected finish1st of 13
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength93%
ExpectedActualTrend
2
2
OR 5011/4
Charencey silks

Dove Valley Holdings Ltd

6yo Gelding · 9-9

Lope De Vega - Normandel (Le Havre)

Ryan Kavanagh80%0/3Ian Williams70%
657622
6.0Class ↓3
1st Cheekpieces +2Tongue strap

Losing run dates back to 2024 and went a long way to showing why when neck second of 6 in similar event at Nottingham (1¼m, good to firm) 3 weeks ago, essentially outbattled in hands-and-heels race. Similar form when filling the same position in another classified race at Yarmouth (11.5f) since.

Class Advantage

14/10 · C6 · finish vs mark above14/10 · mark par14/1018/04 · C6 · finish vs mark above18/04 · mark par6/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above6/06 · mark par4/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above4/07 · mark par21/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above21/07 · mark par28/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above28/07 · mark par28/07projClass-projected finish: 1st of 13
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength36%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 2f · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 6 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 64%14/10Pos 5 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 5 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 56%Pos 7 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 7 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 25%6/06Pos 6 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 6 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 44%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 2 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 80%21/07Pos 2 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 2 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 80%28/07
Projected finish2nd of 13
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength71%
ExpectedActualTrend
11
Market Fav4
OR 495/6
Raise The Stakes silks

Mr A C Whillans

3yo Gelding · 9-1

Cotai Glory - Swift Campaign (Intikhab)

Greg Fairley70%Ewan Whillans60%
600923
5.0Going 8.0
Visor

Beaten only by a rapidly-improving rival when runner-up in a Lingfield classified event in June. Failed to land the odds in a similar race at Yarmouth since, though was on the opposite side of the track to the pair that beat him home. Has since left William Knight (7,000 gns).

Class Advantage

24/10 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a24/1020/11 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a16/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above16/05 · mark par2/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above2/06 · mark par18/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above18/06 · mark par26/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above26/06 · mark par26/06projClass-projected finish: 5th of 13
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength50%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 2f · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 62%24/10Pos 10 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 10 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 10 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 31%16/05Pos 9 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 9 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 27%Pos 2 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 2 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 89%18/06Pos 3 · SP 5/6 | Expected: 96%Pos 3 · SP 5/6 | Actual: 67%26/06
Projected finish3rd of 13
EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend
Strength85%
ExpectedActualTrend
9
3
OR 4511/2
Zebra Star silks

Loudoun Zebras

6yo Mare · 9-9

Gregorian - Queen Zain (Lawman)

Shay Farmer60%−5lbR M Smith
509549
4.0Class ↓4

C&D handicap winner last summer and posted her best effort this season when fourth in another C&D handicap last month. Failed to back that up last time out, though.

Class Advantage

1/10 · C6 · finish vs mark above1/10 · mark par1/109/10 · C6 · finish vs mark above9/10 · mark par5/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above5/05 · mark par6/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above6/06 · mark par19/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above19/06 · mark par5/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above5/07 · mark par5/07projClass-projected finish: 9th of 13
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength32%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 2f · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 5 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 33%1/10Pos 10 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 10 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 18%Pos 9 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 9 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 20%5/05Pos 5 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 5 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 60%Pos 4 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 4 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 63%19/06Pos 9 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 9 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 11%5/07
Projected finish4th of 13
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength61%
ExpectedActualTrend
7
6
OR 5010/3
Sassy Glory silks

Ursa Major & Mark Walford Racing Club

5yo Mare · 9-9

Oasis Dream - Sassy Gal (King's Best)

Jason Hart0/1M Walford60%
549210
5.0Class ↓4
Visor

Eased in the weights prior to finishing a good second at Beverley in June and built on that when doubling her career tally over 1m at Newcastle in June. Ran too badly to be true when well beaten there 2 weeks ago and she can bounce back in a race in which she was runner-up last year. Visor back on.

Class Advantage

13/04 · C6 · finish vs mark above13/04 · mark par13/0427/04 · C6 · finish vs mark above27/04 · mark par11/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above11/05 · mark par16/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above16/06 · mark par25/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above25/06 · mark par25/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above25/07 · mark par25/07projClass-projected finish: 7th of 13
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength33%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 2f · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 60%13/04Pos 4 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 4 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 70%Pos 9 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 9 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 38%11/05Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 89%Pos 1 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 1 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 100%25/06Pos 12 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 12 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 8%25/07
Projected finish5th of 13
RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend
Strength89%
ExpectedActualTrend
1
7
OR 556/4
Wicklow Way silks

Mark Walford Racing Club

4yo Gelding · 10-0

The Irish Rover - Egan's Rose (Swiss Spirit)

J Garritty60%2/5M Walford
099371
5.0

Off the mark in classified stakes over at Newcastle (1¼m) in March and justified that support dropped back into that company when winning at the same C&D last week. Makes appeal again under a penalty.

Class Advantage

18/04 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above18/04 · mark par18/0411/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above11/05 · mark par2/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above2/06 · mark par16/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above16/06 · mark par14/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above14/07 · mark par31/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above31/07 · mark par31/07projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 13
Class readAT LEVEL
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength25%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 2f · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 14 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 14 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 0%18/04Pos 9 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 9 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 20%Pos 9 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 9 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 33%2/06Pos 3 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 3 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 71%Pos 7 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 25%14/07Pos 1 · SP 6/4 | Expected: 92%Pos 1 · SP 6/4 | Actual: 100%31/07
Projected finish6th of 13
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength90%
ExpectedActualTrend
3
Top Pick1
OR 4615/2
Falaise Blanc silks

Katie Scott Racing Syndicate

4yo Gelding · 9-9

Whitecliffsofdover - Shadow Of The Day (Until Sundown)

Jake Dickson60%−5lbK Scott60%
824227
5.0Going 8.0
Blinkers

Just the one win to his name but has been runner-up in 3 of his last 5 starts. Dropped away rather tamely when seventh of 9 in handicap at Musselburgh (13f, good to firm, 15/2) 8 days ago. Back down in trip with blinkers reapplied.

Class Advantage

11/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above11/05 · mark par11/054/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above4/06 · mark par19/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above19/06 · mark par25/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above25/06 · mark par30/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above30/06 · mark par31/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above31/07 · mark par31/07projClass-projected finish: 6th of 13
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength36%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 2f

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 8 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 46%11/05Pos 2 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 2 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 90%Pos 5 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 5 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 50%19/06Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 80%Pos 2 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 80%30/06Pos 7 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 7 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 25%31/07
Projected finish7th of 13
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength51%
ExpectedActualTrend
4
8
OR 4722/1
Golden Valour silks

West Loudoun Racing Club

10yo Gelding · 9-9

Kingman - Gracefield (Storm Cat)

J P Sullivan60%0/4R M Smith60%
785365
4.0
Cheek pieces

Veteran hasn't really threatened to score this season and typically looked less than straightforward when fifth of 9 in handicap at this C&D (good to firm) 12 days ago.

Class Advantage

29/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above29/05 · mark par29/0519/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above19/06 · mark par5/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above5/07 · mark par13/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above13/07 · mark par20/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above20/07 · mark par27/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above27/07 · mark par27/07projClass-projected finish: 8th of 13
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength26%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 2f · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 25%29/05Pos 8 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 8 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 13%Pos 5 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 5 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 56%5/07Pos 3 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 75%Pos 6 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 44%20/07Pos 5 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 50%27/07
Projected finish8th of 13
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength51%
ExpectedActualTrend
6
9
OR 507/1
Patrick Street silks

Mr Paul D Mulligan

7yo Gelding · 9-9

Heeraat - Obsessive Secret (Grand Lodge)

Mikey Sheehy60%1/4A Kinirons60%
050915
3.0
Tongue strap

Cashed in on a career-low mark at Limerick in April and also third in a big-field handicap over hurdles 3 weeks later. Shaped as if still in decent form when last seen on the Flat at Downpatrick and was let down by his jumping back hurdling at Kilbeggan (19f) 15 days ago. Respected at this level.

Class Advantage

9/04 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above9/04 · mark par9/0425/04 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above25/04 · mark par13/05 · C8 · finish vs mark below13/05 · mark par30/05 · C8 · finish vs mark below30/05 · mark par20/06 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above20/06 · mark par24/07 · C8 · finish vs mark below24/07 · mark par24/07projClass-projected finish: 4th of 13
Class readCLASS EDGE
AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move
Strength69%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 2f · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 9 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 9 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 38%9/04Pos 1 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 1 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 100%Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 88%13/05Pos 6 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 6 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 44%Pos 5 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 5 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 69%20/06Pos 5 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 5 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 73%24/07
Projected finish9th of 13
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength54%
ExpectedActualTrend
13
12
OR 4380/1
Sanny Doo silks

Needlebutt Racing

3yo Gelding · 9-1

Mayson - Bella Gleneagles (Gleneagles)

P Mulrennan60%0/1J S Goldie
488677
2.0

Maiden who was having his second start in less than 24 hours when seventh of 10 in handicap at this C&D (good to firm) 34 days ago, unable to sustain effort. Needs to leave that form well behind.

Class Advantage

3/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a3/059/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above9/06 · mark par20/06 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above20/06 · mark par22/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above22/06 · mark par4/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above4/07 · mark par5/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above5/07 · mark par5/07projClass-projected finish: 10th of 13
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move1
Strength43%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 2f · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 0%3/05Pos 8 · SP 300/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 300/1 | Actual: 36%Pos 8 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 0%20/06Pos 6 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 17%Pos 7 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 25%4/07Pos 7 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 33%5/07
Projected finish10th of 13
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength55%
ExpectedActualTrend
5
10
OR 4716/1
One More Bottle silks

Mrs E Quinlan

5yo Gelding · 9-9

Mukhadram - Lady Tabitha (Tamayuz)

Barry McHugh60%0/1Lizzie Quinlan60%
208706
2.0
Blinkers

Won classified event here (1m) last summer. Shaped as if needing the outing after 7 months off when sixth of 9 in handicap (16/1) at this C&D (good to firm) 12 days ago. Drop back in trip should at least suit.

Class Advantage

14/10 · C6 · finish vs mark above14/10 · mark par14/1017/10 · C6 · finish vs mark below17/10 · mark par22/11 · C6 · finish vs mark above22/11 · mark par16/12 · C6 · finish vs mark above16/12 · mark par10/01 · C6 · finish vs mark above10/01 · mark par27/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above27/07 · mark par27/07projClass-projected finish: 12th of 13
Class readAT LEVEL
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength23%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 2f · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 2 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 88%14/10Pos 14 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 14 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 0%Pos 8 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 8 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 36%22/11Pos 7 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 7 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 45%Pos 10 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 10 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 0%10/01Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 38%27/07
Projected finish11th of 13
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
12
11
OR 4810/1
Resdev Time silks

Resdev & Mrs Mary-anne Parker

3yo Filly · 9-1

Time Test - Doobahdeedoo (Animal Kingdom)

Billy Garritty60%0/2M & D Easterby
556367
3.0

One of her better efforts when third of 6 in handicap at Beverley (1¼m) in June but below form both starts since and others are more solid propositions.

Class Advantage

20/04 · C6 · finish vs mark above20/04 · mark par20/048/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above8/05 · mark par26/05 · C6 · finish vs mark above26/05 · mark par23/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above23/06 · mark par6/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above6/07 · mark par17/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above17/07 · mark par17/07projClass-projected finish: 13th of 13
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength26%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 2f · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 5 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 64%20/04Pos 5 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 5 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 33%Pos 6 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 6 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 58%26/05Pos 3 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 60%Pos 6 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 6 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 29%6/07Pos 7 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 7 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 0%17/07
Projected finish12th of 13
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength22%
ExpectedActualTrend
8
13
OR 4820/1
Storm On Jura silks

Summerstorm Bloodstock Ltd

4yo Filly · 9-9

Golden Horn - Padmavati (New Approach)

Lauren Young0/2−5lbJ S Goldie
909648
3.0

Has rarely bettered poor form and she'll need to improve upon her last month's eighth of 12 in handicap at this C&D (good to firm, 20/1).

Class Advantage

13/10 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above13/10 · mark par13/1026/04 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above26/04 · mark par4/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above4/06 · mark par17/06 · C6 · finish vs mark below17/06 · mark par30/06 · C6 · finish vs mark above30/06 · mark par6/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above6/07 · mark par6/07projClass-projected finish: 11th of 13
Class readCLASS EDGE
AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move
Strength36%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 2f · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 9 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 0%13/10Pos 11 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 11 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 9%Pos 9 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 9 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 20%4/06Pos 6 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 6 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 4 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 40%30/06Pos 8 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 36%6/07
Projected finish13th of 13
SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend