Ain't No Sunshine
4yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 46
Fairview · Welcome To Nelson Mandela Bay Maiden Plate(for All Maidens) · 5f 212y
#5
Rank
Odds
4/5
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 7.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06 | Vaal | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Kenilworth | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-25 | Durbanville | 5 | 7th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-02-28 | Kenilworth | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-02-11 | Durbanville | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-21 | Durbanville | ? | 5th | 1st | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10/2025 | 6th | 80/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 08/11/2025 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/01/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 21/01/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 11/02/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 28/02/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 25/03/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 27/04/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 06/08/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |