2
Alesian Beau
5yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 63
Fairview · Welcome To Nelson Mandela Bay Maiden Plate(for All Maidens) · 5f 212y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
98%
Place Prob
80%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | Fairview | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Fairview | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Fairview | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-27 | Fairview | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-06 | Fairview | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-05 | Fairview | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength89%
Delivery trend +4.6% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 43% | -0.39 |
| 05/06/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 57% | -0.25 |
| 21/11/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 57% | -0.31 |
| 05/12/2025 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/02/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 73% | +0.07 |
| 27/02/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 13/03/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 92% | +0.37 |
| 08/05/2026 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 27% | -0.49 |
| 31/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |