7
Norse Warrior
4yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 45
Fairview · Welcome To Nelson Mandela Bay Maiden Plate(for All Maidens) · 5f 212y
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength47%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 7.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Fairview | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Fairview | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Fairview | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Fairview | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Fairview | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-01 | Fairview | ? | 3rd | -1th | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength74%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/05/2026 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 12/06/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 24/06/2026 | 4th | 80/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 01/07/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 10/07/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 07/08/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 10/08/2026 | 6th | 80/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/08/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 09/09/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 60% | +0.55 |