4
Disruptive
4yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 59
Fairview · Play Soccer 6, 10 And 13 Classified Stakes(for All Horses) · 7f 210y
#3
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 7.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Fairview | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Fairview | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Fairview | ? | 11th | 14th | −3 |
| 2026-06-08 | Fairview | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-05-11 | Fairview | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-27 | Fairview | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength88%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/12/2025 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 24/12/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/01/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 27/03/2026 | 1st | 18/1 | 5% | 100% | +0.95 |
| 11/05/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 08/06/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 03/07/2026 | 11th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |
| 31/07/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 11/09/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |