5
Garden Sun
5yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 52
Fairview · Play Soccer 6, 10 And 13 Classified Stakes(for All Horses) · 7f 210y
#6
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Fairview | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Fairview | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Fairview | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Fairview | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-05-15 | Fairview | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Fairview | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength64%
Delivery trend -6.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/02/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 92% | +0.76 |
| 06/03/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 03/04/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 30% | +0.25 |
| 24/04/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |
| 15/05/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 91% | +0.54 |
| 12/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 93% | +0.20 |
| 24/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 92% | +0.21 |
| 10/07/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 11/09/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 22% | -0.15 |