8
Matt's Warrior
4yo Gelding · 8-3 · OR 30
Fairview · Play Soccer 6, 10 And 13 Classified Stakes(for All Horses) · 7f 210y
#9
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -2.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Fairview | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Fairview | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Fairview | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-05-11 | Fairview | ? | 6th | 10th | −4 |
| 2026-02-20 | Fairview | ? | 5th | 9th | −4 |
| 2026-02-03 | Fairview | ? | 5th | 9th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength43%
Delivery trend +1.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07/2025 | 10th | 100/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 04/08/2025 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 23/01/2026 | 4th | 80/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 03/02/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |
| 20/02/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 69% | +0.69 |
| 11/05/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 58% | +0.43 |
| 19/06/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 17/07/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 14/08/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |