Lucky Chance

4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 20

Fairview · #youcanbetonus! Fm 68 Handicap (f & M)(for Fillies And Mares) · 7f 210y

#10

Rank

Odds

99/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#10

★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read

Move▬

Strength53%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.9 /10 (raw 8.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.5

Today:

Class gap: +0.5

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-11	Fairview	?	9th	9th	0	1.0
2026-08-28	Fairview	?	10th	10th	+0	1.0
2026-08-14	Fairview	?	9th	9th	+0	1.5
2026-08-07	Fairview	?	10th	10th	−0	1.0
2026-06-24	Fairview	?	8th	5th	+3	5.0
2026-06-12	Fairview	?	11th	11th	−0	1.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 6-10 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▬

Strength14%

Delivery trend -1.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 10.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
01/05/2026	11th	50/1	0%	0%	0.00
08/05/2026	8th	66/1	0%	36%	+0.36
22/05/2026	7th	50/1	0%	54%	+0.54
12/06/2026	11th	100/1	0%	33%	+0.33
24/06/2026	8th	50/1	0%	46%	+0.46
07/08/2026	10th	28/1	0%	0%	0.00
14/08/2026	9th	33/1	0%	0%	0.00
28/08/2026	10th	66/1	0%	10%	+0.10
11/09/2026	9th	150/1	0%	27%	+0.27