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5

Hospices De Beaune

5yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 59

Fairview · Tab 4racing App Mr 66 Handicap(open) · 6f 211y

#1

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

31%

Place Prob

28%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Eighteen runs since last win in 2025. Creditable fourth of 12 in handicap (25/2) at this course (8f, good to soft) 14 days ago. Others more persuasive.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength87%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Fairview 27/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR - · 7f210y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS27/03C5C7 @ Fairview 24/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 6f102y Std 132 · HIGHER CLASSC6 @ Fairview 11/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 6f211y Std 121 · HIGHER CLASS11/05C6C7 @ Fairview 22/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR - · 6f211y Std 132 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Fairview 12/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 6f211y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS12/06C5C6 @ Fairview 24/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR - · 6f102y Std 120 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Fairview 31/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 6f211y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS31/07C5C5 @ Fairview 26/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 6f211y Std 123 · HIGHER CLASSC7 @ Fairview 11/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 7f210y GS 129 · HIGHER CLASS11/09C7projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Fairview?4th4th+0
2026-08-26Fairview?2nd-1th+3
2026-07-31Fairview?5th2nd+3
2026-06-24Fairview?3rd2nd+1
2026-06-12Fairview?3rd0th+3
2026-05-22Fairview?11th11th+0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0322/0531/0711/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength91%

Delivery trend +3.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/03/20262nd3/184%92%+0.07
24/04/20263rd7/282%80%-0.02
11/05/20263rd3/184%75%-0.09
22/05/202611th9/153%9%-0.44
12/06/20263rd2/189%75%-0.14
24/06/20263rd3/184%83%-0.01
31/07/20265th10/147%64%+0.16
26/08/20262nd13/266%80%+0.14
11/09/20264th10/147%73%+0.25