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6

Blame It On Me

6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 72

Fairview · Tab Telebet 011 074 0300 Mr 82 Handicap(open) · 6f 211y

#3

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

12%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

3 wins from 9 runs this year. Latest win here in July. Good second of 10 in minor event at this C&D (good to soft, 8/1) 14 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength57%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Fairview 09/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 6f211y Std 1299/01C8C8 @ Fairview 30/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 15 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 132C8 @ Fairview 27/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 17 · OR - · 5f212y Sft 12327/02C8C8 @ Fairview 10/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 6f211y Std 130C6 @ Fairview 11/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 6f211y Std 11811/05C6C6 @ Fairview 05/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 6f102y Std 121C6 @ Fairview 24/06/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR - · 6f102y Std 12324/06C6C5 @ Fairview 31/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 6f211y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Fairview 11/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 6f211y GS 132 · HIGHER CLASS11/09C5projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Fairview?2nd0th+2
2026-07-31Fairview?1st-1th+2
2026-06-24Fairview?13th13th−0
2026-06-05Fairview?6th6th−0
2026-05-11Fairview?1st1st−0
2026-03-10Fairview?1st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0110/0324/0611/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/01/20262nd15/890%88%-0.03
30/01/20262nd17/255%93%+0.38
27/02/20262nd7/282%94%+0.12
10/03/20261st6/492%100%+0.08
11/05/20261st10/147%100%+0.53
05/06/20266th9/276%38%-0.39
24/06/202613th8/158%0%-0.58
31/07/20261st20/10%100%+1.00
11/09/20262nd9/153%89%+0.36