Nelson Bay
6yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 63
Fairview · Tab Telebet 011 074 0300 Mr 82 Handicap(open) · 6f 211y
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Fairview | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2026-07-17 | Fairview | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-07-03 | Fairview | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Fairview | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Fairview | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-04-17 | Fairview | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08/2025 | 10th | 18/1 | 5% | 18% | +0.13 |
| 26/09/2025 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 10% | -0.06 |
| 05/11/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 86% | +0.28 |
| 17/04/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 01/05/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 22/05/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 03/07/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.14 |
| 17/07/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/09/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |