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2

Stokesy

4yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 76

Fairview · Tab Telebet 011 074 0300 Mr 82 Handicap(open) · 6f 211y

#2

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

34%

Place Prob

37%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Latest win here in June. 7/1, good second of 9 in handicap at Fairview (6f) 49 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength55%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Turffontein 04/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR - · 1m209y GS 1284/12C8C9 @ Vaal 18/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR - · 7f101y Gd 132C8 @ Turffontein 14/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 5f169y GS 13214/02C8C8 @ Turffontein 26/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 1m99y Gd 132C5 @ Turffontein 12/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 7f210y Sft 118 · HIGHER CLASS12/03C5C1 @ Fairview 08/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 1m2f206y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASSC6 @ Fairview 29/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 7f210y Std 12929/05C6C6 @ Fairview 26/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 6f211y Std 131C6 @ Fairview 07/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 5f212y Sft 133 · HIGHER CLASS7/08C6projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-07Fairview?2nd2nd+0
2026-06-26Fairview?1st1st−0
2026-05-29Fairview?4th4th−0
2026-05-08Fairview?7th1st+5
2026-03-12Turffontein?5th4th+1
2026-02-26Turffontein?1st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/1226/0229/057/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +4.2% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/12/20254th4/179%75%-0.04
18/12/20256th7/282%55%-0.27
14/02/20264th8/158%50%-0.08
26/02/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
12/03/20265th40/10%33%+0.33
08/05/20267th25/10%0%0.00
29/05/20264th15/261%57%-0.03
26/06/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
07/08/20262nd7/163%88%+0.24