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4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 62

Fairview · Tab Telebet 011 074 0300 Mr 82 Handicap(open) · 6f 211y

#4

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner. 33/10, respectable third of 8 in minor event at Fairview (7f) 30 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength12%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Greyville 22/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 6f211y Std 12922/10C8C8 @ Greyville 28/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 6f211y 129C8 @ Greyville 09/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 5f212y Std 1299/12C8C8 @ Fairview 16/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 132C8 @ Fairview 30/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 15 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 13030/01C8C8 @ Fairview 20/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 132C7 @ Fairview 22/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 6f211y Std 13422/05C7C7 @ Fairview 01/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR - · 6f102y Std 137C5 @ Fairview 26/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 6f211y Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS26/08C5projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-26Fairview?3rd1st+2
2026-07-01Fairview?2nd3rd−1
2026-05-22Fairview?3rd4th−1
2026-02-20Fairview?1st3rd−2
2026-01-30Fairview?5th7th−2
2026-01-16Fairview?5th7th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/1016/0122/0526/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +7.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/10/20254th9/276%63%-0.14
28/11/20253rd11/1094%67%-0.28
09/12/20257th9/276%25%-0.51
16/01/20265th8/158%71%+0.14
30/01/20265th17/255%71%+0.16
20/02/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
22/05/20263rd20/10%82%+0.82
01/07/20262nd11/271%89%+0.18
26/08/20263rd3/184%71%-0.13