5
Black Egret
7yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 87
Fairview · Nelson Mandela Bay Racing Poly Challenge(open - 2nd Leg (non-blk Type)) · 6f 211y
#5
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Fairview | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Fairview | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Fairview | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Fairview | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Fairview | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Fairview | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength30%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 25% | -0.41 |
| 20/03/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 01/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 15/05/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 12/06/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 03/07/2026 | 5th | 15/8 | 90% | 50% | -0.40 |
| 31/07/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 33% | -0.54 |
| 21/08/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 11/09/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 78% | +0.41 |