3
Guy Gibson
6yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 85
Fairview · Nelson Mandela Bay Racing Poly Challenge(open - 2nd Leg (non-blk Type)) · 6f 211y
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Fairview | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Fairview | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Fairview | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Scottsville | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Fairview | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-20 | Fairview | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength58%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10/2025 | 1st | 2/5 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 05/12/2025 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 78% | -0.12 |
| 06/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 20/02/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 13/03/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |
| 23/05/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 55% | -0.11 |
| 03/07/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 17/07/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 17% | -0.52 |
| 21/08/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 70% | +0.17 |