7
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5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 73
Fairview · Nelson Mandela Bay Racing Poly Challenge(open - 2nd Leg (non-blk Type)) · 6f 211y
#4
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength38%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Fairview | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Fairview | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Fairview | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Fairview | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Fairview | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Fairview | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 4-8 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength4%
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/12/2025 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 14% | -0.52 |
| 23/01/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 13/02/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 20/03/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 29/05/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 24/07/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 56% | -0.21 |
| 10/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 21/08/2026 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 80% | +0.75 |
| 09/09/2026 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 40% | -0.51 |