1
Mercantour
7yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 99
Fairview · Nelson Mandela Bay Racing Poly Challenge(open - 2nd Leg (non-blk Type)) · 6f 211y
#1
Rank
Odds
6/5
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
91%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.6
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Fairview | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Fairview | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Fairview | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Fairview | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-30 | Fairview | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-29 | Turffontein | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength91%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price, confirming the short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 26/09/2025 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 17/10/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 29/11/2025 | 9th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 30/01/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 57% | -0.19 |
| 20/03/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 01/05/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 17/07/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 21/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 90% | -0.03 |