4
Mr Fox
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 68
Fairview · Nelson Mandela Bay Racing Poly Challenge(open - 2nd Leg (non-blk Type)) · 6f 211y
#6
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Fairview | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Fairview | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-09 | Fairview | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-22 | Fairview | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-11-14 | Fairview | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-17 | Fairview | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength85%
Delivery trend +9.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07/2025 | 4th | 5/6 | 96% | 50% | -0.46 |
| 25/07/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 15/08/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 17/10/2025 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 14/11/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 22/12/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 09/01/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 01/05/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 26/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |