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Kwagga Blitz

5yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 75

Fairview · Next Fairview Racemeeting Wednesday 30 September Mr 74 Handicap(open) · 5f 212y

#4

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

First run since leaving C. Binda when very good second of 13 in handicap (25/2) at this C&D (good to soft) 14 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength51%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Greyville 11/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 5f212y Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS11/064C5 @ Scottsville 29/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Scottsville 10/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 129 · HIGHER CLASS10/0844 @ Kenilworth 02/11/2025 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASSC5 @ Kenilworth 10/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 136 · HIGHER CLASS10/11C5C6 @ Vaal 17/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASSC6 @ Vaal 29/01/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS29/01C6C6 @ Turffontein 21/02/2026 · Pos 10th of 13 · OR - · 5f169y Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASSC6 @ Fairview 11/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR - · 5f212y GS 125 · HIGHER CLASS11/09C6projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Fairview?2nd1st+1
2026-02-21Turffontein?10th9th+1
2026-01-29Vaal?9th8th+1
2026-01-17Vaal?3rd2nd+1
2025-11-10Kenilworth?9th7th+2
2025-11-02Kenilworth410th7th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/062/1129/0111/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength100%

Delivery trend -4.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/06/20251st25/10%100%+1.00
29/06/20252nd9/153%92%+0.40
10/08/20251st11/486%100%+0.14
02/11/202510th33/10%31%+0.31
10/11/20259th22/10%0%0.00
17/01/20263rd28/10%78%+0.78
29/01/20269th16/116%27%+0.11
21/02/202610th20/10%25%+0.25
11/09/20262nd15/261%92%+0.31