2
Blue Lagoon
4yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 76
Greyville · In The Box Seat Podcast Brought To You By Gallop TV Class 4 (F & M) · 6f 211y
#4
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Scottsville | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Durbanville | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Kenilworth | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Kenilworth | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-18 | Kenilworth | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-03-30 | Kenilworth | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 4-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength30%
Delivery trend -5.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 02/11/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 92% | +0.10 |
| 26/11/2025 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 89% | -0.04 |
| 30/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 88% | -0.06 |
| 18/04/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 03/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 92% | +0.07 |
| 31/05/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 25/07/2026 | 6th | 1/1 | 95% | 29% | -0.66 |
| 13/09/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 73% | -0.09 |