7
Claw
6yo Gelding · 9-3
Greyville · Tote For The Win Middle Stakes · 6f 211y
#8
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength39%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Greyville | 3 | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-03-15 | Scottsville | ? | 7th | 3rd | +4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Scottsville | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-11-25 | Greyville | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-07 | Greyville | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-10-19 | Greyville | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength20%
Delivery trend -3.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 15/06/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 05/07/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 85% | +0.16 |
| 19/10/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 07/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 25/11/2025 | 7th | 9/4 | 88% | 33% | -0.55 |
| 15/02/2026 | 12th | 10/1 | 47% | 8% | -0.39 |
| 15/03/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 24/04/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 89% | +0.06 |