4
Dark Matter
4yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 41
Greyville · Tote For The Win Middle Stakes · 6f 211y
#6
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength42%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.4 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Greyville | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Greyville | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Greyville | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Greyville | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2025-11-30 | Greyville | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-11-07 | Greyville | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 6-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength3%
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 10/08/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 21/09/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 57% | -0.24 |
| 07/11/2025 | 8th | 9/4 | 88% | 22% | -0.66 |
| 30/11/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 02/05/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 04/07/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 04/09/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |