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9

Jazz Cafe

6yo Mare · 9-4 · OR 85

Greyville · Tote For The Win Middle Stakes · 6f 211y

#4

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner. Five wins from 19 Flat runs. 66/1, good 3 lengths third of 12 to Holding Thumbs in Gr 3 at this course (15.9f, good) 61 days ago. Significantly back down in trip. Uphill task.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength88%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.4
Today:
Class gap: +2.1
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Greyville 27/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 6f211y Std 12227/10C54 @ Greyville 09/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 6f211y Std 135 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Scottsville 11/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR - · 7f210y GS 135 · HIGHER CLASS11/0144 @ Scottsville 15/02/2026 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR - · 7f101y GS 133 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Greyville 27/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS27/034C5 @ Greyville 11/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 6f211y GS 119C1 @ Greyville 02/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR - · 1m1f208y GS 119 · HIGHER CLASS2/05C1C1 @ Greyville 20/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 1m3f205y GS 126 · HIGHER CLASSC1 @ Greyville 26/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 1m7f200y Gd 115 · HIGHER CLASS26/07C1projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-26Greyville?3rd-2th+4
2026-06-20Greyville?1st-4th+4
2026-05-02Greyville?4th0th+4
2026-04-11Greyville?6th6th0
2026-03-27Greyville42nd1st+1
2026-02-15Scottsville411th10th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/1015/022/0526/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +12.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/10/20254th3/184%57%-0.27
09/12/20256th7/163%38%-0.26
11/01/20267th12/137%33%-0.04
15/02/202611th80/10%29%+0.29
27/03/20262nd7/163%88%+0.24
11/04/20266th11/271%29%-0.42
02/05/20264th5/174%70%-0.04
20/06/20261st25/10%100%+1.00
26/07/20263rd50/10%82%+0.82