6
Klein Karoo
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 72
Greyville · Tote For The Win Middle Stakes · 6f 211y
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
91%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength47%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Greyville | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Scottsville | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Greyville | 4 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-04-27 | Kenilworth | 5 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-03-25 | Durbanville | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-11 | Durbanville | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength88%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10/2025 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 43% | -0.28 |
| 03/12/2025 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 13/01/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 91% | +0.75 |
| 11/02/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 25/03/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 27/04/2026 | 9th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 06/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 29/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 21/08/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |