8
United Offer
4yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 80
Greyville · Tote For The Win Middle Stakes · 6f 211y
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength43%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Greyville | 4 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Turffontein | ? | 6th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Turffontein | ? | 9th | 10th | −0 |
| 2026-05-28 | Vaal | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-11-29 | Turffontein | ? | 6th | 1st | +4 |
| 2025-11-11 | Vaal | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength57%
Delivery trend -3.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 01/11/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 79% | -0.10 |
| 11/11/2025 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 83% | -0.11 |
| 29/11/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 64% | -0.15 |
| 28/05/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 58% | -0.26 |
| 27/06/2026 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 11% | -0.47 |
| 25/07/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 44% | -0.03 |
| 04/09/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |